Recent Updates
- US: Employment Situation (Feb), Intl Trade (Jan)
- US: Establishment Survey Detail (Feb)
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- Canada: International Trade (Jan), Ivey PMI (Feb)
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Economy in Brief
U.S. Trade Deficit Widens to $68.2 Billion in January
The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services widened to $68.2 billion in January...
U.S. Factory Orders & Shipments Rise Again in January
Manufacturing activity is strengthening. Factory orders rose 2.6% (2.8% y/y) in January...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Rise Just 9,000
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose modestly by 9,000 to 745,000 in the week ended February 27...
U.S. Productivity's Decline Lessened in Q4'20; Reverses Q3 Increase
Revisions to nonfarm business sector productivity indicated a 4.2% decline during Q4'20...
EMU Unemployment Rate Steadies in January
The overall EMU unemployment rate was steady in January, off peak, but still elevated...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller December 21, 2005
US real GDP growth for 3Q was revised down slightly to 4.1% (AR) and fell short of Consensus expectations for no change to earlier estimate of 4.3% growth.
A weakened estimate of domestic demand growth caused the downward revision. Real PCE was lessened to 4.1% (3.8% y/y) from 4.3% growth and the strength in business fixed investment was lessened to 8.4% (8.3% y/y) from 8.7%. Lastly, growth in residential investment growth was dropped to 7.3% (7.2% y/y) from 8.4%.
The estimate of inventories contribution to GDP growth was unrevised at -0.4 percentage points but the drag from the foreign trade deficit was lessened as exports grew 2.5% (6.9% y/y).
The chain price index was revised up to 3.3% from 3.0% and the price index for domestic final sales rose 4.3% (3.4% y/y).
Operating corporate profits are estimated to have declined 4.0% (+15.7% y/y) versus an initial estimate of a 3.4% decline. Financial sector earnings were reduced further and fell 20.5% (+5.4% y/y), crushed by three hurricanes. Profits of domestic nonfinancial corporations also were reduced and fell 1.1% (+18.6% y/y) versus the initial estimate of a slight 0.2% gain.
Shifting Data: A Challenge for Monetary Policy Makers from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco is available here.
Greenspan's Unconventional View of the Long-Run Inflation/Output Trade-off from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis can be found here.
Chained 2000$, % AR | 3Q '05 (Final) | 3Q '05 (Prelim.) | 2Q '05 | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GDP | 4.1% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 1.6% |
Inventory Effect | -0.4% | -0.4% | -2.1% | -0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.4% |
Final Sales | 4.6% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 1.2% |
Foreign Trade Effect | -0.1% | -0.3% | 1.1% | 0.2% | -0.5% | -0.3% | -0.6% |
Domestic Final Demand | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 1.8% |
Chained GDP Price Index | 3.3% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 1.7% |