Recent Updates
- Japan: NCI Economic Activity Index (Aug)
- US: NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (Aug)
- Canada: Wholesale trade, MSIO (June)
- Pakistan: Foreign Currency Deposits and Utilization (JUL)
- US: Empire State Mfg Survey (Aug)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Housing Affordability Declines Further in June
The NAR Fixed Rate Mortgage Housing Affordability Index fell 3.6% in June...
EMU Output Makes Solid Gain in June
The European Monetary Union posted a 0.7% increase for industrial output in June...
U.S. Producer Prices Fall During July; Core Increase Weakens
The Producer Price Index for Final Demand fell 0.5% during July...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Continue on an Uptrend
Initial claims for unemployment insurance filed in the week ended August 6 rose 14,000 to 262,000...
RICS Survey Points to More U.K. Housing Sector Weakness
The survey of housing market conditions in the U.K. continues to show strength in prices versus weakness...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller December 21, 2005
US real GDP growth for 3Q was revised down slightly to 4.1% (AR) and fell short of Consensus expectations for no change to earlier estimate of 4.3% growth.
A weakened estimate of domestic demand growth caused the downward revision. Real PCE was lessened to 4.1% (3.8% y/y) from 4.3% growth and the strength in business fixed investment was lessened to 8.4% (8.3% y/y) from 8.7%. Lastly, growth in residential investment growth was dropped to 7.3% (7.2% y/y) from 8.4%.
The estimate of inventories contribution to GDP growth was unrevised at -0.4 percentage points but the drag from the foreign trade deficit was lessened as exports grew 2.5% (6.9% y/y).
The chain price index was revised up to 3.3% from 3.0% and the price index for domestic final sales rose 4.3% (3.4% y/y).
Operating corporate profits are estimated to have declined 4.0% (+15.7% y/y) versus an initial estimate of a 3.4% decline. Financial sector earnings were reduced further and fell 20.5% (+5.4% y/y), crushed by three hurricanes. Profits of domestic nonfinancial corporations also were reduced and fell 1.1% (+18.6% y/y) versus the initial estimate of a slight 0.2% gain.
Shifting Data: A Challenge for Monetary Policy Makers from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco is available here.
Greenspan's Unconventional View of the Long-Run Inflation/Output Trade-off from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis can be found here.
Chained 2000$, % AR | 3Q '05 (Final) | 3Q '05 (Prelim.) | 2Q '05 | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GDP | 4.1% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 1.6% |
Inventory Effect | -0.4% | -0.4% | -2.1% | -0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.4% |
Final Sales | 4.6% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 1.2% |
Foreign Trade Effect | -0.1% | -0.3% | 1.1% | 0.2% | -0.5% | -0.3% | -0.6% |
Domestic Final Demand | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 1.8% |
Chained GDP Price Index | 3.3% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 1.7% |