Recent Updates
- US: Employer Costs for Employee Compensation (Q2)
- US: Home Builders (Sep)
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- Turkey: Retail Sales (Jul); South Africa: Manufacturing Survey (Q4); Morocco: Public Finance (Aug); Uganda: Public Finance (Aug-Prelim); UAE: Central Bank Balance Sheet, Monetary
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Economy in Brief
U.S. Home Builder Index Holds Steady
The Composite Housing Market Index from the National
Association of Home Builders-Wells Fargo remained unchanged during September at
67...
Empire State Manufacturing Index Eases; Prices Improve
The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business
Conditions declined to 19.0 during September from 25.6 in August
British Chamber of Commerce Cuts Forecasts
The British Chamber of Commerce (BCC) today announced cutting its outlook for the UK economy...
U.S. Retail Sales Edge Higher
Total retail sales improved 0.1% (6.6% y/y) during August
following a 0.7% July gain...
U.S. Government Budget Deficit Widens Sharply
Faster growth in spending and a lessened increase in revenues
is a sure formula for widening the budget deficit...
by Tom Moeller December 21, 2005
US real GDP growth for 3Q was revised down slightly to 4.1% (AR) and fell short of Consensus expectations for no change to earlier estimate of 4.3% growth.
A weakened estimate of domestic demand growth caused the downward revision. Real PCE was lessened to 4.1% (3.8% y/y) from 4.3% growth and the strength in business fixed investment was lessened to 8.4% (8.3% y/y) from 8.7%. Lastly, growth in residential investment growth was dropped to 7.3% (7.2% y/y) from 8.4%.
The estimate of inventories contribution to GDP growth was unrevised at -0.4 percentage points but the drag from the foreign trade deficit was lessened as exports grew 2.5% (6.9% y/y).
The chain price index was revised up to 3.3% from 3.0% and the price index for domestic final sales rose 4.3% (3.4% y/y).
Operating corporate profits are estimated to have declined 4.0% (+15.7% y/y) versus an initial estimate of a 3.4% decline. Financial sector earnings were reduced further and fell 20.5% (+5.4% y/y), crushed by three hurricanes. Profits of domestic nonfinancial corporations also were reduced and fell 1.1% (+18.6% y/y) versus the initial estimate of a slight 0.2% gain.
Shifting Data: A Challenge for Monetary Policy Makers from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco is available here.
Greenspan's Unconventional View of the Long-Run Inflation/Output Trade-off from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis can be found here.
| Chained 2000$, % AR | 3Q '05 (Final) | 3Q '05 (Prelim.) | 2Q '05 | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP | 4.1% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 1.6% |
| Inventory Effect | -0.4% | -0.4% | -2.1% | -0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.4% |
| Final Sales | 4.6% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 1.2% |
| Foreign Trade Effect | -0.1% | -0.3% | 1.1% | 0.2% | -0.5% | -0.3% | -0.6% |
| Domestic Final Demand | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 1.8% |
| Chained GDP Price Index | 3.3% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 1.7% |
