Recent Updates
- Spain: *SPAIN SPPI REBASED FROM 2010=100 TO 2015=100
- Spain: Services Price Indexes (Q1)
- Germany: State CPI: Saxony-Anhalt (May-Press)
- UK: LSL ACAD House Price Indexes, Visa Expenditure Index (May)
- Sweden: Securities Statistics (May); Finland: Government Finance (May); Iceland: HICP (May)
- Turkey: Labor Force Survey, Employment by Industry (Mar), Retail Sales (Apr); South Africa: Tourism and Migration (Apr)
- Kyrgyz Republic: International Reserves (May), Remittances
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Empire State Manufacturing Index Continues to
Strengthen
The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business Conditions rose to 25.0 during June, the highest level in eight months...
EMU Trade Deficit Shrinks
The EMU trade balance shrank in April, stepping back to a surplus of 18.1 bln euros from 19.8 bln euros in March....
U.S. Retail Sales Strengthen
Consumers were in a shopping mood last month. Total retail sales increased
0.8% (5.9% y/y) during May following a 0.4% April gain...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Sustain Low Range
Initial claims for unemployment insurance eased to 218,000 during the week ended June 9 ...
U.S. Business Inventory Accumulation Continues; Sales
Strengthen
Total business inventories increased 0.3% (4.4% y/y) during
April following a 0.1% March slip...
by Tom Moeller December 21, 2005
US real GDP growth for 3Q was revised down slightly to 4.1% (AR) and fell short of Consensus expectations for no change to earlier estimate of 4.3% growth.
A weakened estimate of domestic demand growth caused the downward revision. Real PCE was lessened to 4.1% (3.8% y/y) from 4.3% growth and the strength in business fixed investment was lessened to 8.4% (8.3% y/y) from 8.7%. Lastly, growth in residential investment growth was dropped to 7.3% (7.2% y/y) from 8.4%.
The estimate of inventories contribution to GDP growth was unrevised at -0.4 percentage points but the drag from the foreign trade deficit was lessened as exports grew 2.5% (6.9% y/y).
The chain price index was revised up to 3.3% from 3.0% and the price index for domestic final sales rose 4.3% (3.4% y/y).
Operating corporate profits are estimated to have declined 4.0% (+15.7% y/y) versus an initial estimate of a 3.4% decline. Financial sector earnings were reduced further and fell 20.5% (+5.4% y/y), crushed by three hurricanes. Profits of domestic nonfinancial corporations also were reduced and fell 1.1% (+18.6% y/y) versus the initial estimate of a slight 0.2% gain.
Shifting Data: A Challenge for Monetary Policy Makers from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco is available here.
Greenspan's Unconventional View of the Long-Run Inflation/Output Trade-off from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis can be found here.
| Chained 2000$, % AR | 3Q '05 (Final) | 3Q '05 (Prelim.) | 2Q '05 | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP | 4.1% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 1.6% |
| Inventory Effect | -0.4% | -0.4% | -2.1% | -0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.4% |
| Final Sales | 4.6% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 1.2% |
| Foreign Trade Effect | -0.1% | -0.3% | 1.1% | 0.2% | -0.5% | -0.3% | -0.6% |
| Domestic Final Demand | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 1.8% |
| Chained GDP Price Index | 3.3% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 1.7% |
