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Economy in Brief
U.S. Housing Affordability Declines Further in June
The NAR Fixed Rate Mortgage Housing Affordability Index fell 3.6% in June...
EMU Output Makes Solid Gain in June
The European Monetary Union posted a 0.7% increase for industrial output in June...
U.S. Producer Prices Fall During July; Core Increase Weakens
The Producer Price Index for Final Demand fell 0.5% during July...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Continue on an Uptrend
Initial claims for unemployment insurance filed in the week ended August 6 rose 14,000 to 262,000...
RICS Survey Points to More U.K. Housing Sector Weakness
The survey of housing market conditions in the U.K. continues to show strength in prices versus weakness...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller December 19, 2005
The weekly leading index of the US economy published by the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) fell 0.1% last week following a 0.1% gain the prior week. These muted changes underscore a pattern of sideways movement in the ECRI series since this past August. Growth in the index has since decelerated by more than half to 1.4%.
During the last ten years there has been a 53% correlation between the change in the weekly leading index and US real GDP growth during the following quarter. The correlation has risen to 76% during the last five years.
The recent deceleration in the leaders' growth is part of a longer lived deceleration since early last year when growth was near its peak of 12%. That slowdown mirrors the pattern toward slower growth in the leading series from the Conference Board and the OECD.
Visit the Economic Cycle Research Institute for analysis of US and international business cycles.
The Bretton Woods System: Are We Experiencing a Revival? Symposium Summary from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco can be found here.
Economic Cycle Research Institute | 12/09/05 | 12/31/04 | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Weekly Leading Index | 135.4 | 132.5 | 2.9% | 132.6 | 124.9 | 119.8 |
6 Month Growth Rate | 1.4% | 1.6% | 4.2% | 6.7% | 1.1% |