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Economy in Brief
French Retail Sales Rebound In June But Do Not Convince
French retail sales rebounded in June after falling for two consecutive months...
U.S. CPI Increase Moderates; Core Price Gain Steadies
Inflationary pressures moderated last month...
U.S. Government Budget Deficit Widens This Year
The U.S. Treasury Department reported that during the first nine months of fiscal year 2018, the federal government budget deficit totaled $607.1 billion...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Fall
Initial claims for unemployment insurance dropped to 214,000 during the week ended July 7...
EMU IP Makes Strong May Gain
EMU industrial output expands in all sectors in May...
by Tom Moeller December 15, 2005
The consumer price index (CPI-U) fell 0.6% last month, posting the largest m/m decline since a 0.8% drop in July of 1949. Sharply lower gasoline prices and tame "core" goods prices caused the figure to exceed Consensus expectations for a 0.4% fall.
Prices less food & energy rose 0.2% in November and matched Consensus expectations. Core goods prices fell 0.1%, mostly due to a large 1.6% (NSA, -15.5% y/y) decline in computer & peripheral equipment prices. New & used vehicle prices also fell by 0.3% but it was due mostly to a 0.9% drop in used vehicle prices.
Pricing of many other goods was fairly firm. A 0.7% gain in furniture & bedding offset a 0.6% decline in appliance prices. Medical care commodity prices rose 0.6% (3.3% y/y) while educational books & supplies also rose 0.6% (5.4% y/y). Apparel prices rose 0.2% (-1.2% y/y) and tobacco prices rose 0.4% (6.1% y/y).
Core services prices increased 0.4% reflecting price gains of 0.6% (4.8% y/y) for medical care and 0.6% (6.2% y/y) for school tuition & fees. Shelter prices rose 0.3% (2.5% y/y) but public transportation prices were unchanged (5.9% y/y).
Energy prices fell 8.0% due to a 16.0% decline in gasoline prices to an average $2.26 per gallon (+16.1% y/y). Gasoline prices have fallen further in December to an average $2.17 while fuel oil prices also fell last month by 4.3% (+24.1% y/y. The bugger was a 2.1% rise in piped gas & electricity prices (19.8% y/y). A surprising 0.5% m/m decline (36.2% y/y) in natural gas prices will not likely be repeated given the rise in gas prices to record heights this month. Electricity prices rose 3.8% (11.3% y/y) in November.
The chained CPI which adjusts for shifts in the mix of consumer purchases fell 0.5% and less food & energy chain prices rose 0.3%.
Trend Inflation, Firm-Specific Capital, and Sticky Prices from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond can be found here.
| Consumer Price Index | Nov | Oct | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | -0.6% | 0.2% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 1.6% |
| Total less Food & Energy | 0.2% | 0.2% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.3% |
| Goods less Food & Energy | -0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | -0.9% | -2.0% | -1.1% |
| Services less Energy | 0.4% | 0.3% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.8% |
| Energy | -8.0% | -0.2% | 18.1% | 10.9% | 12.2% | -5.9% |
| Food | 0.3% | 0.3% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 1.8% |
| Chained CPI: Total (NSA) | -0.5% | 0.3% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 1.3% |
| Total less Food & Energy | 0.0% | 0.4% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.9% |
