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- India: GDP Press (Q3)
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Economy in Brief
U.S. New Home Sales Almost Unchanged Since August
New single-family home sales around the country changed very little in October and also in September...
U.S. Q3 Growth GDP Unrevised at 33.1%; Corporate Profits Rebound
The second estimate of Q3 U.S. real GDP indicated that economic activity rose an unrevised 33.1% q/q...
U.S. Durable Goods Orders Rise Further in October
Manufacturers’ orders for durable goods increased 1.3% m/m (-0.3% y/y) in October...
U.S. Goods Trade Deficit Deepens During October
The advance estimate of the U.S. trade deficit in goods deepened to $80.29 billion during October...
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Rise for a Second Week
Initial claims for regular state unemployment insurance rose again this past week ending November 21 to 778,000...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller December 15, 2005
The consumer price index (CPI-U) fell 0.6% last month, posting the largest m/m decline since a 0.8% drop in July of 1949. Sharply lower gasoline prices and tame "core" goods prices caused the figure to exceed Consensus expectations for a 0.4% fall.
Prices less food & energy rose 0.2% in November and matched Consensus expectations. Core goods prices fell 0.1%, mostly due to a large 1.6% (NSA, -15.5% y/y) decline in computer & peripheral equipment prices. New & used vehicle prices also fell by 0.3% but it was due mostly to a 0.9% drop in used vehicle prices.
Pricing of many other goods was fairly firm. A 0.7% gain in furniture & bedding offset a 0.6% decline in appliance prices. Medical care commodity prices rose 0.6% (3.3% y/y) while educational books & supplies also rose 0.6% (5.4% y/y). Apparel prices rose 0.2% (-1.2% y/y) and tobacco prices rose 0.4% (6.1% y/y).
Core services prices increased 0.4% reflecting price gains of 0.6% (4.8% y/y) for medical care and 0.6% (6.2% y/y) for school tuition & fees. Shelter prices rose 0.3% (2.5% y/y) but public transportation prices were unchanged (5.9% y/y).
Energy prices fell 8.0% due to a 16.0% decline in gasoline prices to an average $2.26 per gallon (+16.1% y/y). Gasoline prices have fallen further in December to an average $2.17 while fuel oil prices also fell last month by 4.3% (+24.1% y/y. The bugger was a 2.1% rise in piped gas & electricity prices (19.8% y/y). A surprising 0.5% m/m decline (36.2% y/y) in natural gas prices will not likely be repeated given the rise in gas prices to record heights this month. Electricity prices rose 3.8% (11.3% y/y) in November.
The chained CPI which adjusts for shifts in the mix of consumer purchases fell 0.5% and less food & energy chain prices rose 0.3%.
Trend Inflation, Firm-Specific Capital, and Sticky Prices from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond can be found here.
| Consumer Price Index | Nov | Oct | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | -0.6% | 0.2% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 1.6% |
| Total less Food & Energy | 0.2% | 0.2% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.3% |
| Goods less Food & Energy | -0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | -0.9% | -2.0% | -1.1% |
| Services less Energy | 0.4% | 0.3% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.8% |
| Energy | -8.0% | -0.2% | 18.1% | 10.9% | 12.2% | -5.9% |
| Food | 0.3% | 0.3% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 1.8% |
| Chained CPI: Total (NSA) | -0.5% | 0.3% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 1.3% |
| Total less Food & Energy | 0.0% | 0.4% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.9% |
