Recent Updates
- US: Consumer Sentiment (Feb-final), Chicago PMI (Feb),Personal Income, Adv Trade & Inventories (Jan)
- US: Consumer Sentiment Detail (Feb-final)
- Canada: Industrial Product Prices (Jan)
- UK: Motor Vehicle Production (Jan)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Chicago Business Barometer Declines Sharply in February
The ISM-Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer fell 4.3 points in February to 59.5...
Goods Trade Deficit Widened Slightly in January
The advance estimate of the U.S. trade deficit in goods widened slightly to $83.74 billion in January..
Japan's Industrial Sector Mounts a Comeback
Japan's IP surged in January gaining 4.3% compared to December...
Aircraft Orders Boost U.S. Durable Goods Orders in January
Manufacturers' orders for durable goods increased a much larger-than-expected 3.4% m/m (4.5% y/y) in January...
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index Increases Again in February
The Kansas City Fed reported that its manufacturing sector business activity index rose to 24 in February...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller December 14, 2005
The 1.7% decline in import prices last month was three times expectations for a 0.5% drop. The main source of last month's price weakness was an 8.0% drop in petroleum prices. Crude oil prices fell 6.2% and "other" petroleum prices fell 26.2%.
Last month's surprise, however, was that excluding petroleum prices fell 0.2% after two months of 0.9% gain. Prices for nonauto consumer goods fell 0.2% (+0.8% y/y) and capital goods prices were unchanged (-0.7% y/y). Excluding another decline in computer prices, capital goods prices also were unchanged (+1.9% y/y).
During the last ten years there has been a 66% (negative) correlation between the nominal trade-weighted exchange value of the US dollar vs. major currencies and the y/y change in non oil import prices. The correlation is a lower 47% against a broader basket of currencies and a lower 57% against the real value of the dollar.
Export prices also were weak. The 0.9% drop was due to a 0.2% (-0.7% y/y) decline in capital goods prices and no change in nonauto consumer goods prices (0.8% y/y).
Import/Export Prices (NSA) | Nov | Oct | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Import - All Commodities | -1.7% | 0.3% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 2.9% | -2.5% |
Petroleum | -8.0% | -1.0% | 30.8% | 30.5% | 21.0% | 3.0% |
Non-petroleum | -0.2% | 0.9% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 1.1% | -2.4% |
Export - All Commodities | -0.9% | 0.7% | 2.4% | 3.9% | 1.6% | -1.0% |