Recent Updates
- US: Consumer Sentiment (Aug-prelim), Import/Export Prices (Jul)
- US: Consumer Sentiment Detail (Aug-prelim)
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- Bulgaria: Agricultural PPI (Q2) Central Bank Survey (Jul)
- Blue Chip: Blue Chip Economic Indicators (Aug)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Housing Affordability Declines Further in June
The NAR Fixed Rate Mortgage Housing Affordability Index fell 3.6% in June...
EMU Output Makes Solid Gain in June
The European Monetary Union posted a 0.7% increase for industrial output in June...
U.S. Producer Prices Fall During July; Core Increase Weakens
The Producer Price Index for Final Demand fell 0.5% during July...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Continue on an Uptrend
Initial claims for unemployment insurance filed in the week ended August 6 rose 14,000 to 262,000...
RICS Survey Points to More U.K. Housing Sector Weakness
The survey of housing market conditions in the U.K. continues to show strength in prices versus weakness...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller December 9, 2005
Consumer sentiment in early December rose more than generally expected, reported the University of Michigan. The 8.7% m/m rise to 88.7 added to a 10.0% rise in November and beat Consensus expectations for an increase to 85.0.
During the last ten years there has been a 76% correlation between the level of consumer sentiment and the y/y change in real consumer spending.
Consumers' expectations again improved sharply and the index rose 11.1% on top of a 10.1% November gain. Expected business conditions during the next year rose sharply for the third straight month though the level remained down 21.3% versus last year. Expectations for personal finances also rose sharply m/m but here again the index level remained lower than last year by 3.1%. The mean expected inflation rate for the next twelve months held steady m/m at 4.2% though that was below the 5.5% expected in October & September.
The current conditions index added 6.4% to the 9.9% November gain but remained well depressed versus last year. The reading of personal finances surged 12.6% (+3.6% y/y) and the reading of buying conditions for large household goods added to November's 12.9% jump ((-3.0% y/y).Weighing on sentiment is consumers' reading of gov't economic policy (-20.0% y/y).
The University of Michigan survey is not seasonally adjusted.The mid-month survey is based on telephone interviews with 250 households nationwide on personal finances and business and buying conditions. The survey is expanded to a total of 500 interviews at month end.
Why Hasn't the Jump in Oil Prices Led to a Recession? from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco is available here.
University of Michigan | Dec (Prelim.) | Nov | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Consumer Sentiment | 88.7 | 81.6 | -8.7% | 95.2 | 87.6 | 89.6 |
Current Conditions | 106.6 | 100.2 | -0.1% | 105.6 | 97.2 | 97.5 |
Expectations | 77.3 | 69.6 | -15.0% | 88.5 | 81.4 | 84.6 |