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Economy in Brief
U.S. Consumer Credit Outstanding Declines in January
Consumers reduced credit balances further in January...
U.S. Trade Deficit Widens to $68.2 Billion in January
The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services widened to $68.2 billion in January...
German Order Growth Gets Back in Gear Despite the Headwinds
German order growth is back in gear with total orders rising by 1.4% m/m in January...
U.S. Factory Orders & Shipments Rise Again in January
Manufacturing activity is strengthening. Factory orders rose 2.6% (2.8% y/y) in January...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Rise Just 9,000
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose modestly by 9,000 to 745,000 in the week ended February 27...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller December 2, 2005
According to the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO) home prices in the U.S. continued to rise last quarter, but the rate of escalation showed signs of topping out. The 2.9% q/q rise was down from the prior quarter and was down from a 4.7% jump one year ago. As a result the y/y gain slowed to 12.0% from 14.0% in 2Q.
These rates of gain are hardly slow, and given the near record level of home sales, historically low interest rates and rising personal incomes they are widely expected to remain healthy.
Throughout the country, rates of home price appreciation appear to have topped. However, the variance in the rates of growth between regions is high.
During the last year, job cutbacks in the auto industry helped lower the rate of home price appreciation in Michigan to 4.0% and the state's gain has lagged all others. At the other end of the spectrum, demographic trends pushed the rate of home price appreciation in Arizona to the top of the scale at 30.3% y/y.
During the last five years, home price appreciation in the District of Columbia has surpassed all others at 118.9% followed closely by California at 112.8%. Indiana with a 20.6% rise is at the bottom of the list during the last five years.
The House Price Indices in this report are weighted indexes based on repeat sales or refinancings using data provided by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac .
Housing Markets and Demographics from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco can be found here.
The latest report from the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO) can be found here.
House Price Index (OFHEO) | 3Q '05 | 2Q '05 | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
United States | 2.9% | 3.6% | 12.0% | 10.9% | 6.9% | 6.9% |
California | 4.2% | 5.6% | 19.3% | 22.4% | 12.3% | 11.1% |
New Jersey | 3.1% | 4.4% | 13.7% | 15.0% | 10.5% | 12.0% |
Alabama | 2.2% | 2.5% | 8.1% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 3.0% |
Michigan | 0.9% | 1.0% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 4.4% |