Recent Updates
- China: Foreign Reserves (Feb)
- US: Employment Situation (Feb), Intl Trade (Jan)
- US: Establishment Survey Detail (Feb)
- US: Household Survey Detail (Feb)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Consumer Credit Outstanding Declines in January
Consumers reduced credit balances further in January...
U.S. Trade Deficit Widens to $68.2 Billion in January
The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services widened to $68.2 billion in January...
German Order Growth Gets Back in Gear Despite the Headwinds
German order growth is back in gear with total orders rising by 1.4% m/m in January...
U.S. Factory Orders & Shipments Rise Again in January
Manufacturing activity is strengthening. Factory orders rose 2.6% (2.8% y/y) in January...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Rise Just 9,000
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose modestly by 9,000 to 745,000 in the week ended February 27...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller December 1, 2005
A strong 0.6% gain in wage & salary disbursements raised U.S. personal income by 0.4% in October. The increase in wages offset declines in proprietors' and rental income while the latest rise in total income followed an unrevised 1.7% surge in September, though income in August was revised down slightly. Consensus expectations had been for 0.5% income growth in October.
The effects of Hurricanes Katrina, Rita & Wilma are reflected in the last three months' income figures. A description of these effects can be found here.
Wages & salary income doubled the previous months' rise and increased 0.6% (5.0% y/y) on the strength of a 1.4% (3.2% y/y) surge in factory sector wages. Service sector wages rose 0.6% (5.5% y/y) after an upwardly revised 0.5% September increase and government wages rose 0.2% (3.4% y/y).
Disposable personal income rose 0.3% (4.2% y/y) following the unrevised 1.9% jump in September. Adjusted for the 0.1% rise in prices, take home pay rose 0.2% (0.9% y/y).
The PCE chain price index rose a modest 0.1% in October, held back by lower gasoline prices which caused nondurable prices to fall 0.4% (+5.1% y/y). Less food & energy the modest 0.1% increase additionally reflected lower light vehicle prices. Services price rose 0.4% (3.2% y/y) for the second month.
Personal consumption expenditures rose an expected, modest 0.2%. Light vehicle sales fell for the third consecutive month and lowered spending on durables by 2.5% (-2.0% y/y). Nondurables outlays rose 0.6% (9.1% y/y) but adjusted for the y/y gain in prices spending on nondurables rose a lesser 3.8% y/y. Services spending rose 0.5% (6.2% y/y).
Disposition of Personal Income | Oct | Sept | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Personal Income | 0.4% | 1.7% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 3.2% | 1.8% |
Personal Consumption | 0.2% | 0.5% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 4.2% |
Savings Rate | -0.7% | -0.8% | 1.1% (Oct '04) | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.4% |
PCE Chain Price Index | 0.1% | 0.9% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 1.4% |
Less food & energy | 0.1% | 0.2% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 1.8% |