Recent Updates
- US: Public Debt (Feb), Mfrs' Shipments Inventories & Orders (Jan), Productivity & Costs with Revisions (Q4)
- Global Sector PMIs (Feb)
- Canada: Labor Productivity & Unit Labor Cost (Q4)
- Philippines: Int'l Reserves & Foreign Currency Liquidity (Jan)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Rise Just 9,000
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose modestly by 9,000 to 745,000 in the week ended February 27...
U.S. Productivity's Decline Lessened in Q4'20; Reverses Q3 Increase
Revisions to nonfarm business sector productivity indicated a 4.2% decline during Q4'20...
EMU Unemployment Rate Steadies in January
The overall EMU unemployment rate was steady in January, off peak, but still elevated...
U.S. ADP Nonfarm Private Payroll Increase Disappoints in February
Job market strength moderated last month....
U.S. ISM Services Index Weakens in February
The ISM Composite Index of Services Activity declined to 55.3 during February...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller November 29, 2005
Orders for nondefense aircraft soared 50.4% m/m (100.6% y/y) in October. That combined with a more than doubling (111.1% y/y) of defense aircraft bookings, caused total durable goods orders to jump 3.4% last month and therefore recovered all of the little revised 2.0% decline in September. Consensus expectations had been for a 1.5% rise in October orders.
Less the volatile transportation sector altogether, durable goods orders rose 0.3% after a 0.2% slip in September which was shallower than the decline initially reported.
Orders for nondefense capital goods recovered about two thirds of the prior month's drop with a 6.7% spike. Less aircraft these orders rose 1.3% following a 1.7% September decline that was deeper than initially estimated.
Falling orders for computers & electronic products have been a drag on the capital goods total of late. They fell 1.3% (+5.7% y/y) in October for the third hard decline in the last four months. Computer orders fell 1.7% m/m though the y/y gain of 11.0% was respectable due to a sharp 13.5% jump back in August. Orders for electrical equipment orders also have been erratic, but the trend is up. Despite a 3.5% decline in October (+12.3% y/y) the three month average level rose to its highest since early 2001. Machinery orders, in contrast, have been consistently strong. A 2.1% (8.5% y/y) rise in October pulled the three month average of machinery orders to a record high.
Shipments of durable goods rose 1.4% (6.9% y/y) in October due to broad based industry gains. Less the transportation sector, shipments rose 1.2% (7.5% y/y) with the standout being a 10.0% y/y gain in electrical equipment.
Order backlogs rose a strong 1.5% (12.0% y/y) driven partially by a 2.0% (14.4% y/y) rise in transportation. Less transportation backlogs still were firm for the third straight month, though the ratio of backlogs to shipments did slip slightly from its recent high.
Durable inventories increased 0.4% (4.6% y/y) following an upwardly revised 0.1% Rise in September. The I/S ratio for durable goods fell to its lowest since April of last year.
NAICS Classification | Oct | Sept | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Durable Goods Orders | 3.4% | -2.0% | 11.4% | 9.5% | 4.1% | -3.4% |
Excluding Transportation | 0.3% | -0.2% | 8.7% | 11.7% | 3.1% | -6.2% |
Nondefense Capital Goods | 6.7% | -8.6% | 19.4% | 11.0% | 4.2% | -9.8% |
Excluding Aircraft | 1.3% | -1.7% | 10.7% | 9.5% | 4.8% | -10.5% |