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Economy in Brief

Consumer Confidence Recovered
by Tom Moeller November 29, 2005

The Conference Board reported that it's November index of Consumer Confidence recovered to the highest level since August. The 16.1% m/m jump contrasted to Consensus expectations for a lesser gain to 90.0 and it was the strongest m/m increase since early 2003. The gain exceeded the 10.0% m/m rebound in Consumer sentiment reported last week by the University of Michigan.

During the last twenty years there has been a 52% correlation between the level of consumer confidence and the y/y change in real consumer spending. The correlation rose to 66% during the last ten years.

The index of consumers' expectations ballooned 26.7% m/m (-1.6% y/y) as optimism rose that during the next six months business conditions would get better, more jobs would be created and that incomes would rise.

Consumers' assessment of the present situation also improved and recovered some of the prior two months' decline (+18.4% y/y). Though an increased percentage of respondents indicated business conditions were good, jobs were viewed as hard to get by a lesser 23.2% of survey participants.

The Conference Board’s survey isconducted by a mailed questionnaire to 5,000 households and about 3,500 typically respond.

Conference Board Nov Oct Y/Y 2004 2003 2002
Consumer Confidence 98.9 85.2 6.8% 96.1 79.8 96.6
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