Recent Updates
- Israel: Average Housing Prices (Q2)
- Japan: NCI Economic Activity Index (Aug)
- US: NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (Aug)
- Canada: Wholesale trade, MSIO (June)
- Pakistan: Foreign Currency Deposits and Utilization (JUL)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Empire State Manufacturing Index Plummets in August; Lowest Since May '20
The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business Conditions plunged to -31.3 in August...
U.S. Import and Export Prices Fall in July; Deepest Since April 2020
Import prices fell 1.4% m/m (8.8% y/y) in July...
U.S. Housing Affordability Declines Further in June
The NAR Fixed Rate Mortgage Housing Affordability Index fell 3.6% in June...
EMU Output Makes Solid Gain in June
The European Monetary Union posted a 0.7% increase for industrial output in June...
U.S. Producer Prices Fall During July; Core Increase Weakens
The Producer Price Index for Final Demand fell 0.5% during July...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller November 23, 2005
The November reading of consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan rose 10.0% m/m to 81.6, adding a bit to the improvement through mid-month. Consensus expectations had been for a rise to 81.0.
During the last ten years there has been a 78% correlation between the level of consumer sentiment and the y/y change in real consumer spending.
Improved expectations fostered the m/m rise. The index of Consumer expectations rose 10.1% as expected business conditions during the next year surged 22.1% while expectations for personal finances recovered all of the prior month's drop. The mean expected inflation rate for the next twelve months fell further to 4.1% from 5.5% expected in October & September.
The current conditions index held onto the improvement through mid-month and rose 9.9% versus October. The reading of personal finances rose 7.3% and reversed all of the October decline and the reading of buying conditions for large household goods jumped 12.9% to the highest level since August.
The University of Michigan survey is not seasonally adjusted.The mid-month survey is based on telephone interviews with 250 households nationwide on personal finances and business and buying conditions. The survey is expanded to a total of 500 interviews at month end.
Why Hasn't the Jump in Oil Prices Led to a Recession? from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco is available here.
University of Michigan | Nov (Final) | Nov (Prelim) | Oct | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Consumer Sentiment | 81.6 | 79.9 | 74.2 | -12.1% | 95.2 | 87.6 | 89.6 |
Current Conditions | 100.2 | 100.3 | 91.2 | -4.3% | 105.6 | 97.2 | 97.5 |
Expectations | 69.6 | 66.8 | 63.2 | -18.3% | 88.5 | 81.4 | 84.6 |