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Economy in Brief
NABE Projects Firm Growth in 2022, as in 2021
The NABE expects 4.0% real GDP growth in 2022 following a 4.8% rise during 2021...
U.S. Construction Spending Strengthens Again in January
Building activity continues to strengthen...
Manufacturing PMIs Are Strengthening More in the Developed World
PMIs largely are improving in February...
U.S. Personal Income & Spending Surge With Stimulus Payments in January
Personal income jumped 10.0% (13.1% y/y) last month...
Chicago Business Barometer Declines Sharply in February
The ISM-Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer fell 4.3 points in February to 59.5...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller November 16, 2005
Total business inventories in September added 0.5% to the prior month's 0.4% rise. The gains marked the strongest consecutive monthly increases since February & March yet they failed to reverse the decline in the ratio of inventories-to-sales which fell to a new record low. The I/S ratio fell to 1.25 as business sales increased 0.6% (7.8% y/y).
The 0.9% rise in retail inventories repeated its August increase due to a 2.1% jump in motor vehicle inventories. Excluding autos, inventories rose 0.4% as clothing inventories rose 0.5% (5.7% y/y) and general merchandise increased 0.4% (6.9% y/y). Furniture inventories fell 0.3% (+5.7% y/y) for the third consecutive down month.
Factory sector inventories fell for the second consecutive month.
Wholesale inventories increased 0.6%. During the last ten years there has been a 64% correlation between the y/y change in wholesale inventories and the change in imports of merchandise.
Business Inventories | Sept | Aug | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total | 0.5% | 0.4% | 4.3% | 7.7% | 1.4% | 1.6% |
Retail | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 5.9% |
Retail excl. Autos | 0.4% | 0.6% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 2.0% | 2.3% |
Wholesale | 0.6% | 0.5% | 8.0% | 10.8% | 2.0% | 1.2% |
Manufacturing | -0.2% | -0.1% | 4.9% | 7.7% | -1.1% | -5.4% |