Recent Updates
- China: Foreign Reserves (Feb)
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- US: Establishment Survey Detail (Feb)
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Economy in Brief
U.S. Consumer Credit Outstanding Declines in January
Consumers reduced credit balances further in January...
U.S. Trade Deficit Widens to $68.2 Billion in January
The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services widened to $68.2 billion in January...
German Order Growth Gets Back in Gear Despite the Headwinds
German order growth is back in gear with total orders rising by 1.4% m/m in January...
U.S. Factory Orders & Shipments Rise Again in January
Manufacturing activity is strengthening. Factory orders rose 2.6% (2.8% y/y) in January...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Rise Just 9,000
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose modestly by 9,000 to 745,000 in the week ended February 27...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller November 16, 2005
The 0.2% rise in the consumer price index (CPI-U) last month was stronger than Consensus expectations for no change in prices following the huge 1.2% spurt in September.
Though energy prices declined, the fall was limited to 0.2% due to a 14.0% (45.3% y/y) surge in natural gas prices and a 0.9% (35.9% y/y) gain in fuel oil prices. These gains were offset by gasoline prices which moved lower by 4.5% (+37.0% y/y) and in November have declined roughly another 15% m/m to $2.30 per gallon in the latest week. 
Prices less food & energy rose 0.2%, twice the September increase, but the increase matched Consensus expectations. Core goods prices were unchanged as 0.5% increases in prices for medical commodities (2.6% y/y) and new vehicles (0.9% y/y) were offset by m/m declines in prices for appliances (+2.5% y/y), carpets (-3.5% y/y) and other household equipment (-6.5% y/y). Apparel prices also fell for the sixth month this year (-0.4% m/m, -1.1% y/y) and tobacco prices dropped 0.1% (5.6% y/y).
Core services prices rose 0.3% as shelter prices jumped 0.5% (2.3% y/y) and medical care services prices also rose 0.5% (4.6% y/y). Public transportation prices ballooned 1.4% (7.8% y/y) while school tuition costs rose 0.2% (6.2% y/y).
The chained CPI which adjusts for shifts in the mix of consumer purchases rose 0.3% and less food & energy chain prices rose 0.4%.
Understanding the Inflation Targeting Debate from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis is available here.
| Consumer Price Index | Oct | Sept | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 0.2% | 1.2% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 1.6% |
| Total less Food & Energy | 0.2% | 0.1% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.3% |
| Goods less Food & Energy | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.4% | -0.9% | -2.0% | -1.1% |
| Services less Energy | 0.3% | 0.1% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.8% |
| Energy | -0.2% | 12.0% | 29.6% | 10.9% | 12.2% | -5.9% |
| Food | 0.3% | 0.3% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 1.8% |
| Chained CPI: Total (NSA) | 0.3% | 0.8% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 1.3% |
| Total less Food & Energy | 0.4% | 0.2% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.9% |
