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Economy in Brief
Italy's ISAE Sector Confidence Rebounds Then Retreats
The Italian business and consumer confidence readings are excellent examples of what much of Europe is going through right now...
U.S. New Home Sales Almost Unchanged Since August
New single-family home sales around the country changed very little in October and also in September...
U.S. Q3 Growth GDP Unrevised at 33.1%; Corporate Profits Rebound
The second estimate of Q3 U.S. real GDP indicated that economic activity rose an unrevised 33.1% q/q...
U.S. Durable Goods Orders Rise Further in October
Manufacturers’ orders for durable goods increased 1.3% m/m (-0.3% y/y) in October...
U.S. Goods Trade Deficit Deepens During October
The advance estimate of the U.S. trade deficit in goods deepened to $80.29 billion during October...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller November 16, 2005
The 0.2% rise in the consumer price index (CPI-U) last month was stronger than Consensus expectations for no change in prices following the huge 1.2% spurt in September.
Though energy prices declined, the fall was limited to 0.2% due to a 14.0% (45.3% y/y) surge in natural gas prices and a 0.9% (35.9% y/y) gain in fuel oil prices. These gains were offset by gasoline prices which moved lower by 4.5% (+37.0% y/y) and in November have declined roughly another 15% m/m to $2.30 per gallon in the latest week. 
Prices less food & energy rose 0.2%, twice the September increase, but the increase matched Consensus expectations. Core goods prices were unchanged as 0.5% increases in prices for medical commodities (2.6% y/y) and new vehicles (0.9% y/y) were offset by m/m declines in prices for appliances (+2.5% y/y), carpets (-3.5% y/y) and other household equipment (-6.5% y/y). Apparel prices also fell for the sixth month this year (-0.4% m/m, -1.1% y/y) and tobacco prices dropped 0.1% (5.6% y/y).
Core services prices rose 0.3% as shelter prices jumped 0.5% (2.3% y/y) and medical care services prices also rose 0.5% (4.6% y/y). Public transportation prices ballooned 1.4% (7.8% y/y) while school tuition costs rose 0.2% (6.2% y/y).
The chained CPI which adjusts for shifts in the mix of consumer purchases rose 0.3% and less food & energy chain prices rose 0.4%.
Understanding the Inflation Targeting Debate from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis is available here.
| Consumer Price Index | Oct | Sept | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 0.2% | 1.2% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 1.6% |
| Total less Food & Energy | 0.2% | 0.1% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.3% |
| Goods less Food & Energy | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.4% | -0.9% | -2.0% | -1.1% |
| Services less Energy | 0.3% | 0.1% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.8% |
| Energy | -0.2% | 12.0% | 29.6% | 10.9% | 12.2% | -5.9% |
| Food | 0.3% | 0.3% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 1.8% |
| Chained CPI: Total (NSA) | 0.3% | 0.8% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 1.3% |
| Total less Food & Energy | 0.4% | 0.2% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.9% |
