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Economy in Brief
Japan's Inflation Shows Mixed Gains
Japan's inflation rose by 0.4% in July...
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Existing home sales declined 5.9% (-20.2% y/y) in July to 4.810 million units...
U.S. Index of Leading Indicators Fell Again in July
The Conference Board's Composite Leading Economic Indicators Index fell 0.4% m/m...
U.S. Philly Fed General Activity Index Back to Positive Reading in August
The current general activity diffusion index rose nearly 19 points in August to 6.2...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Slightly Lower
Initial claims for unemployment insurance went down 2,000 in the week ended August 13 to 250,000...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller November 16, 2005
The 0.2% rise in the consumer price index (CPI-U) last month was stronger than Consensus expectations for no change in prices following the huge 1.2% spurt in September.
Though energy prices declined, the fall was limited to 0.2% due to a 14.0% (45.3% y/y) surge in natural gas prices and a 0.9% (35.9% y/y) gain in fuel oil prices. These gains were offset by gasoline prices which moved lower by 4.5% (+37.0% y/y) and in November have declined roughly another 15% m/m to $2.30 per gallon in the latest week.
Prices less food & energy rose 0.2%, twice the September increase, but the increase matched Consensus expectations. Core goods prices were unchanged as 0.5% increases in prices for medical commodities (2.6% y/y) and new vehicles (0.9% y/y) were offset by m/m declines in prices for appliances (+2.5% y/y), carpets (-3.5% y/y) and other household equipment (-6.5% y/y). Apparel prices also fell for the sixth month this year (-0.4% m/m, -1.1% y/y) and tobacco prices dropped 0.1% (5.6% y/y).
Core services prices rose 0.3% as shelter prices jumped 0.5% (2.3% y/y) and medical care services prices also rose 0.5% (4.6% y/y). Public transportation prices ballooned 1.4% (7.8% y/y) while school tuition costs rose 0.2% (6.2% y/y).
The chained CPI which adjusts for shifts in the mix of consumer purchases rose 0.3% and less food & energy chain prices rose 0.4%.
Understanding the Inflation Targeting Debate from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis is available here.
Consumer Price Index | Oct | Sept | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total | 0.2% | 1.2% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 1.6% |
Total less Food & Energy | 0.2% | 0.1% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.3% |
Goods less Food & Energy | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.4% | -0.9% | -2.0% | -1.1% |
Services less Energy | 0.3% | 0.1% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.8% |
Energy | -0.2% | 12.0% | 29.6% | 10.9% | 12.2% | -5.9% |
Food | 0.3% | 0.3% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 1.8% |
Chained CPI: Total (NSA) | 0.3% | 0.8% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 1.3% |
Total less Food & Energy | 0.4% | 0.2% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.9% |