Recent Updates
- US: Monthly Treasury Statement, Wholesale Trade (Jun), Consumer Prices (Jul)
- Brazil: Retail Trade (Jul)
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- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Mortgage Applications Rose Slightly in the Latest Week
Mortgage applications increased 0.2% (-62.9% y/y) from one week earlier...
U.S. Productivity Declines in Q2, Pushing Unit Labor Costs Higher
Nonfarm business sector productivity fell 4.6% (AR) during Q2'22...
U.S. Small Business Optimism Edged Up in July
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index edged up to 89.9 in July...
U.S. Gasoline & Crude Oil Prices Continue Weakening
Retail gasoline prices declined to $4.04 per gallon (+27.3% y/y) last week...
OECD LEIs Point to a Ramp Down in Growth - and Nothing More
The OECD metrics this month show a broad tendency for growth to slow down...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Louise Curley November 15, 2005
Preliminary data released today show that Germany's Real Gross Domestic Product increased 0.6% in the third quarter, compared with revised increases of 0.6% in the first quarter and 0.2% in the second quarter. The unrevised increases for the first and second quarters were 0.8% and 0.0% respectively. For the three quarters of this year, real GDP is only 0.87% above the three corresponding quarters of 2004, suggesting that growth in 2005 is unlikely to exceed 1.0%. Nominal GDP increased 0.38% in the third quarter, less than the real increase, as the deflator declined 0.24%. This was one of the few times, in the past five years, when the deflator declined, as can be seen in the first chart which shows the quarter-to-quarter growth in Real and Nominal GDP.
Information on the composition of GDP will not be available until November 22 when the more detailed release is scheduled to appear. However, the Federal Statistical Office offered some qualitative comments in the current release. A strong increase in exports and a considerable rise in capital formation had positive impacts on the quarter-to-quarter growth. Net exports were almost the only cause of year-to-year growth; domestic activity having made little contribution.
The ZEW Center for Economic Research released the results of its survey of institutional investors and financial analysts regarding the current economic situation and the outlook six months ahead. This was one of those rare times when the respondents were less pessimistic about the current situation than they were last month but less positive about the situation six months ahead as can be seem in the second chart. The decline in optimism about the future is generally attributed to doubts that the agreed upon economic program of the Grand Coalition scheduled to take office on November 22 may do little to encourage growth.
Germany | Q3 05 | Q2 05 | Q3 04 | Q/Q % | Y/Y % | 2004 % | 2003 % | 2002 % |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GDP (Bil. Euros) | 561.05 | 558.90 | 557.16 | 0.38 | 1.61 | 1.88 | 0.84 | 1.55 |
GDP (Bil 2000 Chained Euros) | 535.02 | 531.73 | 527.02 | 0.62 | 1.36 | 1.09 | -.019 | 0.09 |
Deflator (2000 =100) | 104.84 | 105.09 | 104.59 | -0.24 | 0.24 | 0.79 | 1.03 | 1.45 |
ZEW Survey ( Percent Balance) |
Nov 05 | Oct 05 | Nov 04 | M/M Dif | Y/Y Dif | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
Current Situation | -55.2 | -58.0 | -57.8 | 2.8 | 2.6 | -67.7 | 92.6 | 83.3 |
Situation 6 Months Ahead | 38.7 | 39.4 | 13.9 | -0.7 | 24.8 | 44.6 | 38.4 | 45.3 |