Recent Updates
- US: Employment Situation (Feb), Intl Trade (Jan)
- US: Establishment Survey Detail (Feb)
- US: Household Survey Detail (Feb)
- Canada: International Trade (Jan), Ivey PMI (Feb)
- Serbia: PPI (Feb)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Consumer Credit Outstanding Declines in January
Consumers reduced credit balances further in January...
U.S. Trade Deficit Widens to $68.2 Billion in January
The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services widened to $68.2 billion in January...
German Order Growth Gets Back in Gear Despite the Headwinds
German order growth is back in gear with total orders rising by 1.4% m/m in January...
U.S. Factory Orders & Shipments Rise Again in January
Manufacturing activity is strengthening. Factory orders rose 2.6% (2.8% y/y) in January...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Rise Just 9,000
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose modestly by 9,000 to 745,000 in the week ended February 27...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller November 15, 2005
The November Empire State Index of General Business Conditions in New York's manufacturing industries regained all of the prior month's decline and rose 10.7 points to 22.82, the highest level since August. Consensus expectations had been for less of an increase to 15.0.
Since the series' inception in 2001 there has been a close 80% correlation between the index level and the three month change in factory sector production.
Shipments recovered most of the October decline and the employment index jumped to 7.7 points to the highest level in over a year. The new orders index also added a bit to the October 13 point surge while prices paid rose to a record high.
Like the Philadelphia Fed Index of General Business Conditions, the Empire State Business Conditions Index reflects answers to an independent survey question; it is not a weighted combination of the components.
The index of expectations for business conditions in six months recovered sharply. The 14 point jump pulled the index level to its highest since August and expectations for future capital spending jumped. A nine point rise brought the index to the highest level since March.
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey is a monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Participants from across the state in a variety of industries respond to a questionnaire and report the change in a variety of indicators from the previous month. Respondents also state the likely direction of these same indicators six months ahead. April 2002 is the first report, although survey data date back to July 2001.
For more on the Empire State Manufacturing Survey, including methodologies and the latest report, click here.
Empire State Manufacturing Survey | Nov | Oct | Nov '04 | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
General Business Conditions (diffusion index) | 22.82 | 12.08 | 19.78 | 28.76 | 16.17 | 7.19 |