Chain store sales gave back last week about half of the prior period's strong gain and fell 0.6% according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS survey. Nevertheless, the average level of sales in November remained 1.0% above October which rose 0.1% from the prior month

The average US retail price of regular gasoline fell another 8 cents last week to $2.30 per gallon (+16.6 y/y). Yesterday, the spot market price for gasoline was down another 3 cents from the prior week.

During the last ten years there has been a 56% correlation between the y/y change in chain store sales and the change in non-auto retail sales less gasoline, as published by the US Census Department. Chain store sales correspond directly with roughly 14% of non-auto retail sales less gasoline.

The leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC gained 0.3% (-2.9% y/y) during the latest week following an upwardly revised 0.2% gain the prior week.

The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.