Recent Updates
- Israel: Average Housing Prices (Q2)
- Japan: NCI Economic Activity Index (Aug)
- US: NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (Aug)
- Canada: Wholesale trade, MSIO (June)
- Pakistan: Foreign Currency Deposits and Utilization (JUL)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Empire State Manufacturing Index Plummets in August; Lowest Since May '20
The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business Conditions plunged to -31.3 in August...
U.S. Import and Export Prices Fall in July; Deepest Since April 2020
Import prices fell 1.4% m/m (8.8% y/y) in July...
U.S. Housing Affordability Declines Further in June
The NAR Fixed Rate Mortgage Housing Affordability Index fell 3.6% in June...
EMU Output Makes Solid Gain in June
The European Monetary Union posted a 0.7% increase for industrial output in June...
U.S. Producer Prices Fall During July; Core Increase Weakens
The Producer Price Index for Final Demand fell 0.5% during July...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller November 15, 2005
Chain store sales gave back last week about half of the prior period's strong gain and fell 0.6% according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS survey. Nevertheless, the average level of sales in November remained 1.0% above October which rose 0.1% from the prior month
The average US retail price of regular gasoline fell another 8 cents last week to $2.30 per gallon (+16.6 y/y). Yesterday, the spot market price for gasoline was down another 3 cents from the prior week.
During the last ten years there has been a 56% correlation between the y/y change in chain store sales and the change in non-auto retail sales less gasoline, as published by the US Census Department. Chain store sales correspond directly with roughly 14% of non-auto retail sales less gasoline.
The leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC gained 0.3% (-2.9% y/y) during the latest week following an upwardly revised 0.2% gain the prior week.
The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.
ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100) | 11/12/05 | 11/05/05 | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Weekly Chain Store Sales | 453.3 | 456.1 | 3.9% | 4.6% | 2.9% |