Recent Updates
- Bangladesh: Wage Earners Remittances (Feb)
- Qatar: Producer Price Indexes (Jan)
- Brazil: Sao Paulo CPI (Feb), PPI (Jan)
- Cyprus: GDP (Q4)
- India: Trade (Feb-Prelim), CPI Industrial Workers
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
NABE Projects Firm Growth in 2022, as in 2021
The NABE expects 4.0% real GDP growth in 2022 following a 4.8% rise during 2021...
U.S. Construction Spending Strengthens Again in January
Building activity continues to strengthen...
Manufacturing PMIs Are Strengthening More in the Developed World
PMIs largely are improving in February...
U.S. Personal Income & Spending Surge With Stimulus Payments in January
Personal income jumped 10.0% (13.1% y/y) last month...
Chicago Business Barometer Declines Sharply in February
The ISM-Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer fell 4.3 points in February to 59.5...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller November 14, 2005
The U.S. federal government budget deficit continued lower during the opening month of FY06. The deficit of $47.2B fell 17.6% versus last October, about the same rate of decline as during FY05.
As a percentage of GDP the deficit fell to 2.6% last fiscal year versus 3.6% in FY04. The latest projection from the Congressional Budget Office is for a further decline to 2.4% in FY06.
Net receipt continued firm 9.2% y/y rate last month, powered by 16.0% growth in individual income tax receipts (44% of total receipts). That growth made up for an October shortfall in corporate income taxes (10% of total receipts) which left them 20.5% last October.
Total receipts accounted for 17.5% of GDP last fiscal year, up from 16.3% the prior year but down from 18.4% during the 1990s.
The improved job market continued to lift employment taxes (36% of total receipts) 6.4% y/y, a slowdown versus 8.8% growth during all of FY 2005 which was the strongest increase since 1988.
U.S. net outlays grew 1.3% y/y last month despite a 28.0% gain in defense (19% of total outlays). Medicare spending (12% of total outlays) fell 11.4% y/y but spending on social security (21% of total outlays) rose 5.7%. Spending on health programs (10% of the total) rose 3.5% while spending on education & training (4% of the total) fell 5.0% y/y after double digit gains during three of the last four fiscal years. Interest expense (8% of the total) grew 13.0% with higher interest rates after a 14.9% gain last fiscal year.
The latest projections from the US Congressional Budget Office are available here.
US Government Finance | Oct | Sept | Y/Y | FY 2005 | FY 2004 | FY 2003 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Budget Balance | $-47.2B | $35.7B | $-57.3B (10/04) | $-318.6B | $-412.1B | $-377.6B |
Net Revenues | $149.5B | $151.6B | 9.2% | 14.6% | 5.5% | -3.8% |
Net Outlays | $196.7B | $216.0B | 1.3% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 7.4% |