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Economy in Brief
U.S. Consumer Credit Growth Surges in June
Consumer credit outstanding jumped $40.1 billion (7.7% y/y) in June...
Japan's LEI Waffles and Slows
Japan's leading economic index in June slipped to 100.6...
U.S. Foreign Trade Deficit Narrows in June
The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services (BOP basis) fell to $79.61 billion in June...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Remain on an Uptrend
Initial claims for unemployment insurance filed in the week ended July 30 rose 6,000 to 260,000...
RICS Survey Shows Weakening U.K. Housing Market
With the Bank of England hiking its key rate by 50 basis points and planning to squeeze its balance sheet...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Excess Demand for Goods Caused Supply Constraints
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State Coincident Indexes in June 2022
State Labor Markets in June 2022
No Recession Call Can Be Made Before BEA Explains The Record Gap Between Income & Output
by Tom Moeller November 14, 2005
The U.S. federal government budget deficit continued lower during the opening month of FY06. The deficit of $47.2B fell 17.6% versus last October, about the same rate of decline as during FY05.
As a percentage of GDP the deficit fell to 2.6% last fiscal year versus 3.6% in FY04. The latest projection from the Congressional Budget Office is for a further decline to 2.4% in FY06.
Net receipt continued firm 9.2% y/y rate last month, powered by 16.0% growth in individual income tax receipts (44% of total receipts). That growth made up for an October shortfall in corporate income taxes (10% of total receipts) which left them 20.5% last October.
Total receipts accounted for 17.5% of GDP last fiscal year, up from 16.3% the prior year but down from 18.4% during the 1990s.
The improved job market continued to lift employment taxes (36% of total receipts) 6.4% y/y, a slowdown versus 8.8% growth during all of FY 2005 which was the strongest increase since 1988.
U.S. net outlays grew 1.3% y/y last month despite a 28.0% gain in defense (19% of total outlays). Medicare spending (12% of total outlays) fell 11.4% y/y but spending on social security (21% of total outlays) rose 5.7%. Spending on health programs (10% of the total) rose 3.5% while spending on education & training (4% of the total) fell 5.0% y/y after double digit gains during three of the last four fiscal years. Interest expense (8% of the total) grew 13.0% with higher interest rates after a 14.9% gain last fiscal year.
The latest projections from the US Congressional Budget Office are available here.
US Government Finance | Oct | Sept | Y/Y | FY 2005 | FY 2004 | FY 2003 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Budget Balance | $-47.2B | $35.7B | $-57.3B (10/04) | $-318.6B | $-412.1B | $-377.6B |
Net Revenues | $149.5B | $151.6B | 9.2% | 14.6% | 5.5% | -3.8% |
Net Outlays | $196.7B | $216.0B | 1.3% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 7.4% |