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Economy in Brief
NABE Projects Firm Growth in 2022, as in 2021
The NABE expects 4.0% real GDP growth in 2022 following a 4.8% rise during 2021...
U.S. Construction Spending Strengthens Again in January
Building activity continues to strengthen...
Manufacturing PMIs Are Strengthening More in the Developed World
PMIs largely are improving in February...
U.S. Personal Income & Spending Surge With Stimulus Payments in January
Personal income jumped 10.0% (13.1% y/y) last month...
Chicago Business Barometer Declines Sharply in February
The ISM-Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer fell 4.3 points in February to 59.5...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller November 10, 2005
The preliminary reading of consumer sentiment in November from the University of Michigan rose 7.7% to 79.9, the highest level in three months. Consensus expectations had been for less of an improvement to 76.8.
During the last ten years there has been a 78% correlation between the level of consumer sentiment and the y/y change in real consumer spending.
The mean expected inflation rate for the next twelve months fell sharply to 4.6 from 5.5% expected in October. That prompted Consumer expectations to rise 5.7% and expected business conditions during the next year to surge 14.7%.
The current conditions index also improved 10.0% m/m (-4.2% y/y) due to 10% gains in personal finances and in buying conditions for large household goods.
The University of Michigan survey is not seasonally adjusted.The mid-month survey is based on telephone interviews with 250 households nationwide on personal finances and business and buying conditions. The survey is expanded to a total of 500 interviews at month end.
University of Michigan | Nov | Oct | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Consumer Sentiment | 79.9 | 74.2 | -13.9% | 95.2 | 87.6 | 89.6 |
Current Conditions | 100.3 | 91.2 | -4.2% | 105.6 | 97.2 | 97.5 |
Expectations | 66.8 | 63.2 | -21.6% | 88.5 | 81.4 | 84.6 |