Recent Updates
- Japan: Bank of Japan Core CPI (Dec)
- China: GDP (Q4)
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- Korea: GDP, Contribution to Growth in Real GDP (Q4), PPI (Dec)
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Economy in Brief
Delay in Release
of Data for Construction, MSIO, Intl Trade, Wholesale Trade, Monthly Treasury, Retail Sales, Business Sales & Inventories, and Housing Starts Due to Lapse in Federal Government Funding.
U.K. Retail Sales Begin to Lose Momentum
U.K. retail sales fell by a sharp 1% in December...
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Rebounds; Pricing Pressure Eases
The Philadelphia Fed reported that its General Factory Sector Business Conditions Index increased to 17.0 during January...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Slip
Initial claims for jobless insurance eased to 213,000 (-2.6% y/y) during the week ended January 12...
Passenger Car Registrations Hold to Low Ground in Europe
Passenger car registrations in Europe fell on a year-over-year comparison for the fourth consecutive months in December...
by Tom Moeller November 10, 2005
The preliminary reading of consumer sentiment in November from the University of Michigan rose 7.7% to 79.9, the highest level in three months. Consensus expectations had been for less of an improvement to 76.8.
During the last ten years there has been a 78% correlation between the level of consumer sentiment and the y/y change in real consumer spending.
The mean expected inflation rate for the next twelve months fell sharply to 4.6 from 5.5% expected in October. That prompted Consumer expectations to rise 5.7% and expected business conditions during the next year to surge 14.7%.
The current conditions index also improved 10.0% m/m (-4.2% y/y) due to 10% gains in personal finances and in buying conditions for large household goods.
The University of Michigan survey is not seasonally adjusted.The mid-month survey is based on telephone interviews with 250 households nationwide on personal finances and business and buying conditions. The survey is expanded to a total of 500 interviews at month end.
| University of Michigan | Nov | Oct | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Sentiment | 79.9 | 74.2 | -13.9% | 95.2 | 87.6 | 89.6 |
| Current Conditions | 100.3 | 91.2 | -4.2% | 105.6 | 97.2 | 97.5 |
| Expectations | 66.8 | 63.2 | -21.6% | 88.5 | 81.4 | 84.6 |
