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Economy in Brief
U.S. CPI Unchanged in July with Drop in Energy Prices
Consumer prices were unchanged in July after an outsized 1.3% m/m jump in June...
U.S. Federal Government Budget Deficit Shrinks in July
The U.S. Treasury Department reported a federal budget deficit of $211.1 billion in July...
U.S. Mortgage Applications Rose Slightly in the Latest Week
Mortgage applications increased 0.2% (-62.9% y/y) from one week earlier...
German Inflation Rises
The German inflation rate as measured by the HICP accelerated to 8.4% in July...
U.S. Productivity Declines in Q2, Pushing Unit Labor Costs Higher
Nonfarm business sector productivity fell 4.6% (AR) during Q2'22...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller November 10, 2005
Import prices fell an expected 0.3% last month following the revised 2.3% spike in September. Petroleum prices were the source of weakness as they reversed more than half of the prior month's gain with a 4.4% drop. Crude oil prices fell 4.1% and "other" petroleum prices fell 14.4% but those decline were offset by a 20.9% (114.1% y/y) increase in natural gas.
Excluding petroleum, prices were strong for the second consecutive month and rose 0.8%. The gain reflected a 4.4% (16.1% y/y) rise in non-oil industrial supplies which repeated the gain in September. Elsewhere, paper prices rose 1.0% (3.8% y/y) and chemical prices jumped 2.1% (11.7% y/y). On the weak side, nonauto consumer goods prices fell 0.1% (+1.2% y/y) and capital goods prices slipped 0.3% (-0.5% y/y). Excluding another decline in computer prices, capital goods prices fell 0.1% (2.0% y/y).
During the last ten years there has been a 66% (negative) correlation between the nominal trade-weighted exchange value of the US dollar vs. major currencies and the y/y change in non oil import prices. The correlation is a lower 47% against a broader basket of currencies and a lower 57% against the real value of the dollar.
Export prices jumped 0.6% as nonagricultural prices rose 0.6% (3.5% y/y).
Time-Varying Pass-Through from Import Prices to Consumer Prices: Evidence from an Event Study with Real-Time Data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York is available here.
Import/Export Prices (NSA) | Oct | Sept | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Import - All Commodities | -0.3% | 2.3% | 8.1% | 5.6% | 2.9% | -2.5% |
Petroleum | -4.4% | 8.0% | 30.9% | 30.5% | 21.0% | 3.0% |
Non-petroleum | 0.8% | 1.0% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 1.1% | -2.4% |
Export - All Commodities | 0.6% | 0.8% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 1.6% | -1.0% |