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Economy in Brief
U.S. Mortgage Applications Rose Slightly in the Latest Week
Mortgage applications increased 0.2% (-62.9% y/y) from one week earlier...
U.S. Productivity Declines in Q2, Pushing Unit Labor Costs Higher
Nonfarm business sector productivity fell 4.6% (AR) during Q2'22...
U.S. Small Business Optimism Edged Up in July
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index edged up to 89.9 in July...
U.S. Gasoline & Crude Oil Prices Continue Weakening
Retail gasoline prices declined to $4.04 per gallon (+27.3% y/y) last week...
OECD LEIs Point to a Ramp Down in Growth - and Nothing More
The OECD metrics this month show a broad tendency for growth to slow down...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller November 8, 2005
Last week, chain store sales posted the largest gain since April according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS survey. The 1.0% jump pulled the starting point for November sales 1.3% above the October average which rose just 0.1% from the prior month
The sales jump was aided by another ten cent drop in the average US retail price of regular gasoline to $2.38 per gallon (+18.7 y/y). Retail gas prices are down 22.5% since the early September peak of $3.07 but during the last several days the spot market price for gasoline has bottomed out, suggesting that further retail price declines will be limited.
During the last ten years there has been a 56% correlation between the y/y change in chain store sales and the change in non-auto retail sales less gasoline, as published by the US Census Department. Chain store sales correspond directly with roughly 14% of non-auto retail sales less gasoline.
The leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC fell 0.6% (-3.4% y/y) during the latest week following an upwardly revised 0.2% gain the prior week.
The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.
ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100) | 11/05/05 | 10/29/05 | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Weekly Chain Store Sales | 456.1 | 451.6 | 4.1% | 4.6% | 2.9% |