Recent Updates
- US: ISM - New York (Feb)
- Canada: GDP (Q4), GDP by Industry (Dec)
- Bangladesh: Wage Earners Remittances (Feb)
- Qatar: Producer Price Indexes (Jan)
- Brazil: Sao Paulo CPI (Feb), PPI (Jan)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
NABE Projects Firm Growth in 2022, as in 2021
The NABE expects 4.0% real GDP growth in 2022 following a 4.8% rise during 2021...
U.S. Construction Spending Strengthens Again in January
Building activity continues to strengthen...
Manufacturing PMIs Are Strengthening More in the Developed World
PMIs largely are improving in February...
U.S. Personal Income & Spending Surge With Stimulus Payments in January
Personal income jumped 10.0% (13.1% y/y) last month...
Chicago Business Barometer Declines Sharply in February
The ISM-Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer fell 4.3 points in February to 59.5...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller November 8, 2005
The index of small business optimism from the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) jumped 3.7% in October, despite the devastation wreaked by three Hurricanes.
The economic outlook brightened as 14% of firms expected the economy to improve, the best reading since June, although the percentage remained well below the 34-37% range from 2002 to 2004. Plans for adding to employment held steady at 17%, the same as during the last three months. On the negative side, the percentage of firms planning to raise capital expenditures fell back to the lowest level of the year.
During the last ten years there has been a 70% correlation between the level of the NFIB index and the two quarter change in real GDP.
The percentage of firms planning to raise average selling prices fell to 23% from 27% during the prior two months and from 26% during all of last year. The percentage of firm actually raising prices also dipped to 22% from 25% in September but those readings remained up versus 19% averaged in 2004. During the last ten years there has been a 60% correlation between the change in the producer price index and the level of the NFIB price index.
The percentage of firms with one or more job openings fell two points to 21%, last year's average. During the last ten years there has been a 67% correlation between hiring plans and the three month growth in nonfarm payrolls.
About 24 million businesses exist in the United States. Small business creates 80% of all new jobs in America.
The latest press release from the NFIB is available here.
Nat'l Federation of Independent Business | Oct | Sept | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Small Business Optimism Index (1986=100) | 103.7 | 100.0 | -0.2% | 104.6 | 101.3 | 101.2 |