Recent Updates
- Colombia: BOP (Q4)
- Japan: Monetary Base (Feb), Labor Force Survey, Household Formation (Jan), Corporate Financial Statements (Q4)
- New Zealand: Export and Import Price Indexes (Q4)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
NABE Projects Firm Growth in 2022, as in 2021
The NABE expects 4.0% real GDP growth in 2022 following a 4.8% rise during 2021...
U.S. Construction Spending Strengthens Again in January
Building activity continues to strengthen...
Manufacturing PMIs Are Strengthening More in the Developed World
PMIs largely are improving in February...
U.S. Personal Income & Spending Surge With Stimulus Payments in January
Personal income jumped 10.0% (13.1% y/y) last month...
Chicago Business Barometer Declines Sharply in February
The ISM-Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer fell 4.3 points in February to 59.5...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Carol Stone November 4, 2005
After last month's somewhat counter-intuitive labor market report in Canada, October data righted the relationships of jobs -- up -- and unemployment -- down, showing an improved picture overall.
The number of workers employed jumped 68,700 after easing 2,300 in September. There were notable gains in several industry sectors: trade, finance, professional and technical services, education, and health and social services. Those in trade and finance were outsized and served to offset declines in previous months. Others are less defined, but indicative of generally rising trends. In the goods producing sector, total jobs were down 3,200; manufacturing, down 7,700, extended an irregular downtrend that began in early 2003, and construction fell 4,900.
The unemployment rate declined further in October, to 6.6% from 6.7% in September and two months at 6.8%. As we indicated last month, these are generation-low unemployment rates. The last time unemployment in Canada for all workers 15 years old and over was 6.6% or below was in April 1975, more than 30 years ago. Many Canadian labor market gauges highlight a middle age range of 15-64 years old, that is, omitting older workers. This unemployment rate remained at 6.8% in October, basically where it has been for the last seven months. Last month, we emphasized that lower unemployment didn't necessarily imply tight labor markets because participation was declining. There was a slight improvement in this situation in October, with the overall rate rising to 67.2% from September's 67.1%; the rate for 15-64 year olds, shown in the table below, also ticked up, from 77.7% to 77.8%.
We also cited last time the weakness in employment of young workers, but in October jobs for 15-24 year olds increased 32,000, contributing to a rise in their participation rate from 65.6% to 66.0%. Their unemployment rate dropped from 12.7% to 12.1%. Clearly month-to-month movements in these figures, particularly around the beginning of a school year, may not tell much fundamental about employment conditions generally, but for these young people, we can point to progress in reducing their unemployment from 14.0% early in 2004 and some hint of stabilization in their participation rates at about 66% throughout 2005. The number of jobs they hold is just about even with a year ago.
CanadaAge 15 and over | Mo/Mo Change, 000sYr/Yr % Oct | December/December|||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 2005 | Sept 2005 | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 | ||
Employment | 68.7 | -2.3 | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 4.0% |
Goods- Producing | -3.2 | -14.5 | 0.4% | 2.0% | -0.5% | 6.3% |
Service- Producing | 71.9 | 12.2 | 1.5% | 1.2% | 2.6% | 3.1% |
Labor Force | 52.7 | -7.4 | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 3.2% |
Ages 15-64 | Oct 2005 | Sept 2005 | Oct 2004 | Annual Average | ||
Unemployment Rate | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 7.7% |
Participation Rate | 77.8% | 77.7% | 78.1% | 78.2% | 78.1% | 77.4% |