Recent Updates
- China: 70-City Property Prices (Sep), Capacity Utilization, GDP (Q3)
- US: Regional Retail Sales (Sep)
- Spain: Motor Vehicle Registrations (Sep)
- Canada Regional: CPI by Province (Sep), Retail Trade by Province (Aug)
- Canada: CPI (Sep), Retail Trade (Aug)
- Ireland: General Government Debt, General Government Transactions (Q2)
- Latvia: PPI (Sep)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Canadian Retail Sales Weaken As Inflation Slows
Canada's retail sales show relatively widespread deceleration...
U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Strengthen
The Conference Board's Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators increased 0.5% (7.0% y/y) during September...
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Growth Continues; Pricing Pressure Eases
The Philadelphia Federal Reserve reported that its General Factory Sector Business Conditions Index dipped to 22.2 during October...
U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Ease
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell to 210,000 (-8.7% y/y) during the week ended October 13...
U.K. Retail Sales: Doing Well-As-Can-Be-Expected Despite September Drop
U.K. retail sales and growth have all held up remarkably well- so far...
by Tom Moeller October 31, 2005
For the second consecutive month, the Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer improved unexpectedly. The October Business Barometer rose to 62.9 after a huge gain in September and easily outpaced Consensus expectations for a slight decline to 58.
During the last ten years there has been a 65% correlation between the level of Chicago PMI and the three month change in factory sector industrial production.
The new orders index jumped 9.2 points to the highest level since March and the production index rose 5.9 points to its highest since July. Employment also rose by 2.9 points and gained back most of the September decline. During the last ten years there has been a 75% correlation between the level of the employment index and the three month change in factory sector employment.
The index of prices paid added another 3.3 points to the 13.4 point spike in September. During the last ten years there has been an 86% correlation between the Chicago price index and the three month change in the "core" intermediate goods PPI.
| Chicago Purchasing Managers Index, SA | Oct | Sept | Oct '04 | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business Barometer | 62.9 | 60.5 | 67.7 | 62.9 | 54.6 | 52.8 |
| New Orders | 72.6 | 63.4 | 79.7 | 67.0 | 58.0 | 56.2 |
| Prices Paid | 79.6 | 76.3 | 84.7 | 80.1 | 55.8 | 56.9 |
