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Economy in Brief
Delay in Release
of Data for Construction, MSIO, Intl Trade, Wholesale Trade, Monthly Treasury, Retail Sales, Business Sales & Inventories, and Housing Starts Due to Lapse in Federal Government Funding.
U.K. Retail Sales Begin to Lose Momentum
U.K. retail sales fell by a sharp 1% in December...
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Rebounds; Pricing Pressure Eases
The Philadelphia Fed reported that its General Factory Sector Business Conditions Index increased to 17.0 during January...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Slip
Initial claims for jobless insurance eased to 213,000 (-2.6% y/y) during the week ended January 12...
Passenger Car Registrations Hold to Low Ground in Europe
Passenger car registrations in Europe fell on a year-over-year comparison for the fourth consecutive months in December...
by Tom Moeller October 31, 2005
For the second consecutive month, the Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer improved unexpectedly. The October Business Barometer rose to 62.9 after a huge gain in September and easily outpaced Consensus expectations for a slight decline to 58.
During the last ten years there has been a 65% correlation between the level of Chicago PMI and the three month change in factory sector industrial production.
The new orders index jumped 9.2 points to the highest level since March and the production index rose 5.9 points to its highest since July. Employment also rose by 2.9 points and gained back most of the September decline. During the last ten years there has been a 75% correlation between the level of the employment index and the three month change in factory sector employment.
The index of prices paid added another 3.3 points to the 13.4 point spike in September. During the last ten years there has been an 86% correlation between the Chicago price index and the three month change in the "core" intermediate goods PPI.
| Chicago Purchasing Managers Index, SA | Oct | Sept | Oct '04 | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business Barometer | 62.9 | 60.5 | 67.7 | 62.9 | 54.6 | 52.8 |
| New Orders | 72.6 | 63.4 | 79.7 | 67.0 | 58.0 | 56.2 |
| Prices Paid | 79.6 | 76.3 | 84.7 | 80.1 | 55.8 | 56.9 |
