Recent Updates
- Euro area: Flash Consumer Confidence (Apr)
- Ireland: Producer & Wholesale Price Indexes (Mar)
- UK: Capital Issuance (Mar)
- Spain: Trade in Constant Prices, Trade in Goods (Feb)
- Germany: Federal Budget, PPI, Monthly Tax Revenue (Mar), Short-term Indicator (Feb), Public Sector Finance (Q4)
- Colombia: Imports (Feb); Brazil: IPCA-15 (Apr)
- Turkey: Non-Domestic PPI, House Sales, Central Government and Domestic Debt by Instrument, External Debt by Lender, Domestic
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
German PPI Accelerates
The German year-on-year PPI has generally been decelerating since early 2017...
U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Signal Continued Expansion
The Conference Board's Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators increased 0.3% during March...
Philadelphia Fed Factory Conditions Improve; Prices Jump
The Philadelphia Fed reported that its General Factory Sector Business Conditions Index rose to 23.2 during April...
U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Are Little Changed
Initial unemployment insurance claims slipped to 232,000 (-6.1% y/y) during the week ended April 14...
U.K. Retail Sales Fall
U.K. GDP is expected to cool its jets when the first quarter GDP number is released...
by Tom Moeller October 31, 2005
For the second consecutive month, the Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer improved unexpectedly. The October Business Barometer rose to 62.9 after a huge gain in September and easily outpaced Consensus expectations for a slight decline to 58.
During the last ten years there has been a 65% correlation between the level of Chicago PMI and the three month change in factory sector industrial production.
The new orders index jumped 9.2 points to the highest level since March and the production index rose 5.9 points to its highest since July. Employment also rose by 2.9 points and gained back most of the September decline. During the last ten years there has been a 75% correlation between the level of the employment index and the three month change in factory sector employment.
The index of prices paid added another 3.3 points to the 13.4 point spike in September. During the last ten years there has been an 86% correlation between the Chicago price index and the three month change in the "core" intermediate goods PPI.
| Chicago Purchasing Managers Index, SA | Oct | Sept | Oct '04 | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business Barometer | 62.9 | 60.5 | 67.7 | 62.9 | 54.6 | 52.8 |
| New Orders | 72.6 | 63.4 | 79.7 | 67.0 | 58.0 | 56.2 |
| Prices Paid | 79.6 | 76.3 | 84.7 | 80.1 | 55.8 | 56.9 |
