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Economy in Brief

Chicago Purchasing Agents' Index Again Rose Unexpectedly
by Tom Moeller October 31, 2005

For the second consecutive month, the Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer improved unexpectedly. The October Business Barometer rose to 62.9 after a huge gain in September and easily outpaced Consensus expectations for a slight decline to 58.

During the last ten years there has been a 65% correlation between the level of Chicago PMI and the three month change in factory sector industrial production.

The new orders index jumped 9.2 points to the highest level since March and the production index rose 5.9 points to its highest since July. Employment also rose by 2.9 points and gained back most of the September decline. During the last ten years there has been a 75% correlation between the level of the employment index and the three month change in factory sector employment.

The index of prices paid added another 3.3 points to the 13.4 point spike in September. During the last ten years there has been an 86% correlation between the Chicago price index and the three month change in the "core" intermediate goods PPI.

Chicago Purchasing Managers Index, SA Oct Sept  Oct '04 2004 2003 2002
Business Barometer 62.9 60.5 67.7 62.9 54.6 52.8
  New Orders 72.6 63.4 79.7 67.0 58.0 56.2
Prices Paid 79.6 76.3 84.7 80.1 55.8 56.9
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