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Economy in Brief
U.S. Housing Affordability Declines Further in June
The NAR Fixed Rate Mortgage Housing Affordability Index fell 3.6% in June...
EMU Output Makes Solid Gain in June
The European Monetary Union posted a 0.7% increase for industrial output in June...
U.S. Producer Prices Fall During July; Core Increase Weakens
The Producer Price Index for Final Demand fell 0.5% during July...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Continue on an Uptrend
Initial claims for unemployment insurance filed in the week ended August 6 rose 14,000 to 262,000...
RICS Survey Points to More U.K. Housing Sector Weakness
The survey of housing market conditions in the U.K. continues to show strength in prices versus weakness...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller October 31, 2005
For the second consecutive month, the Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer improved unexpectedly. The October Business Barometer rose to 62.9 after a huge gain in September and easily outpaced Consensus expectations for a slight decline to 58.
During the last ten years there has been a 65% correlation between the level of Chicago PMI and the three month change in factory sector industrial production.
The new orders index jumped 9.2 points to the highest level since March and the production index rose 5.9 points to its highest since July. Employment also rose by 2.9 points and gained back most of the September decline. During the last ten years there has been a 75% correlation between the level of the employment index and the three month change in factory sector employment.
The index of prices paid added another 3.3 points to the 13.4 point spike in September. During the last ten years there has been an 86% correlation between the Chicago price index and the three month change in the "core" intermediate goods PPI.
Chicago Purchasing Managers Index, SA | Oct | Sept | Oct '04 | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Business Barometer | 62.9 | 60.5 | 67.7 | 62.9 | 54.6 | 52.8 |
New Orders | 72.6 | 63.4 | 79.7 | 67.0 | 58.0 | 56.2 |
Prices Paid | 79.6 | 76.3 | 84.7 | 80.1 | 55.8 | 56.9 |