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Economy in Brief
U.S. Consumer Credit Outstanding Declines in January
Consumers reduced credit balances further in January...
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The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services widened to $68.2 billion in January...
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German order growth is back in gear with total orders rising by 1.4% m/m in January...
U.S. Factory Orders & Shipments Rise Again in January
Manufacturing activity is strengthening. Factory orders rose 2.6% (2.8% y/y) in January...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Rise Just 9,000
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose modestly by 9,000 to 745,000 in the week ended February 27...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller October 27, 2005
A 41.6% m/m decline in nondefense aircraft orders combined with a 3.5% drop in defense aircraft bookings to pull total orders for durable goods down 2.1% last month. The 3.8% rise in August orders was upwardly revised and Consensus expectations had been for a 1.2% September decline.
Less the transportation sector altogether, durable goods orders slipped 1.0% after an upwardly revised 5.1% September jump, however, the year to year gain in orders less transportation is the same 6.0% as the gain in the total.
Total nondefense capital goods orders dropped 8.1% m/m due to the drop in aircraft but less aircraft these orders slipped a modest 1.2% following an upwardly revised 4.0% August surge.
Machinery orders increased 1.0% (7.6% y/y) on top of a 4.0% August gain and though electrical equipment orders fell 3.5% (8.4% y/y). Orders for computers & electronic products, down 3.6% (+0.9% y/y), fell hard for the second month in the last three. Computer orders fell 6.8% (+5.8% y/y).
Shipments of durable goods edged up 0.1% (5.3% y/y) in September and less transportation shipments rose 0.4% (6.3% y/y).
Order backlogs rose another 0.7% (10.4% y/y) and excluding transportation backlogs jumped 1.1% (8.9% y/y). The ratio of backlogs to shipments excluding transportation rose to the highest since early 2004.
Durable inventories fell 0.1% (+5.1% y/y) following a 0.2% August decline. The momentum behind durable inventory accumulation has waned sharply to the point where the y/y gain is now half what it was earlier this year. As a result the I/S ratio for durable goods has fallen for most of this year.
NAICS Classification | Sept | Aug | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Durable Goods Orders | -2.1% | 3.8% | 6.0% | 9.5% | 4.1% | -3.4% |
Excluding Transportation | -1.0% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 11.7% | 3.1% | -6.2% |
Nondefense Capital Goods | -8.1% | 4.1% | 8.5% | 11.0% | 4.2% | -9.8% |
Excluding Aircraft | -1.2% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 9.5% | 4.8% | -10.5% |