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Economy in Brief

MAPI Business Outlook Survey Fell Further  
by Tom Moeller October 26, 2005

The 3Q '05 Composite Business Index published by the Manufacturers' Alliance/MAPI fell to 66 from 68 the prior quarter. The latest is the lowest level since 2Q '03.

During the last ten years there has been a 66% correlation between the Composite Index Level and quarterly growth in US factory sector output.

The current orders index continued lower to 81 and is down from the peak of 93, yet the index remained up sharply from the low of 30 during 2001.

The 3Q export orders index fell to 68 and earlier figures were revised lower. During the last ten years there has been a 73% correlation between the export orders index and the y/y change in real US exports.

The profit margins index slipped slightly to 60 from 61 in 2Q but was well off last year's highs of 73.Capital spending intentions for the coming year moved lower q/q but the trend continued the sideways movement in place since late 2003. During the last ten years there has been a 74% correlation between the capital spending index a y/y growth in business investment in equipment & software.

For the latest US Business Outlook from the MAPI click here.

Manufacturers' Alliance/MAPI Survey 3Q '05 2Q '05 3Q '04 2004 2003 2002
Composite Business Index 66 68 75 76 67 60
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