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Economy in Brief

Chain Store Sales Slipped
by Tom Moeller October 25, 2005

Chain store sales slipped 0.2% last week and reversed half of the prior week's increase, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS survey. For the month, the level of sales is even with the September average.

During the last ten years there has been a 56% correlation between the y/y change in chain store sales and the change in non-auto retail sales less gasoline, as published by the US Census Department. Chain store sales correspond directly with roughly 14% of non-auto retail sales less gasoline.

The leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC jumped 0.9% (-2.3% y/y) during the latest week but for the month so far is down 0.1% from the September average.

The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.

ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100) 10/22/05 10/15/05 Y/Y 2004 2003
Total Weekly Chain Store Sales 449.7 450.6 3.6% 4.6% 2.9%
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