Recent Updates
- Taiwan: Manufacturing PMI, Non-manufacturing PMI (Feb)
- China: Foreign Reserves (Feb)
- US: Employment Situation (Feb), Intl Trade (Jan)
- US: Establishment Survey Detail (Feb)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Consumer Credit Outstanding Declines in January
Consumers reduced credit balances further in January...
U.S. Trade Deficit Widens to $68.2 Billion in January
The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services widened to $68.2 billion in January...
German Order Growth Gets Back in Gear Despite the Headwinds
German order growth is back in gear with total orders rising by 1.4% m/m in January...
U.S. Factory Orders & Shipments Rise Again in January
Manufacturing activity is strengthening. Factory orders rose 2.6% (2.8% y/y) in January...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Rise Just 9,000
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose modestly by 9,000 to 745,000 in the week ended February 27...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller October 25, 2005
In October, the Conference Board's index of Consumer Confidence fell to 85.0 and added 2.9% to the 17.9% m/m decline during the prior month.
Consensus expectations had been for little change at 88.0. Last week, the University of Michigan reported that its October measure of consumer sentiment fell 2.0% m/m (-17.8% y/y).
During the last twenty years there has been a 52% correlation between the level of consumer confidence and the y/y change in real consumer spending. The correlation rose to 66% during the last ten years.
The index of consumers' expectations fell 3.9% m/m (-24.6% y/y) and the assessment of the present situation slipped 2.0% (+15.1% y/y). Jobs were viewed as hard to get by an increased 25.3% of survey participants.
The Conference Boards survey isconducted by a mailed questionnaire to 5,000 households and about 3,500 typically respond.
Conference Board | Oct | Sept | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Consumer Confidence | 85.0 | 87.5 | -8.5% | 96.1 | 79.8 | 96.6 |