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Economy in Brief

Consumer Confidence Down Again
by Tom Moeller October 25, 2005

In October, the Conference Board's index of Consumer Confidence fell to 85.0 and added 2.9% to the 17.9% m/m decline during the prior month.

Consensus expectations had been for little change at 88.0. Last week, the University of Michigan reported that its October measure of consumer sentiment fell 2.0% m/m (-17.8% y/y).

During the last twenty years there has been a 52% correlation between the level of consumer confidence and the y/y change in real consumer spending. The correlation rose to 66% during the last ten years.

The index of consumers' expectations fell 3.9% m/m (-24.6% y/y) and the assessment of the present situation slipped 2.0% (+15.1% y/y). Jobs were viewed as hard to get by an increased 25.3% of survey participants.

The Conference Board’s survey isconducted by a mailed questionnaire to 5,000 households and about 3,500 typically respond.

Conference Board Oct Sept Y/Y 2004 2003 2002
Consumer Confidence 85.0 87.5 -8.5% 96.1 79.8 96.6
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