Recent Updates
- US: GDP by Industry (Q1)
- Canada: Retail Trade (May), CPI (Jun)
- Thailand: Trade (Jun); China: Loans from Financial Institutions (Jun); Korea: Trade in Goods (Jun); Taiwan: Export Orders (Jun)
- Turkey: NCI Index (Jul)
- Turkey: Established & Liquidated (Jun-Press); Morocco: CPI, Public Finance (Jun)
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Economy in Brief
German PPI Rises at Nine-Month High Pace
The German PPI gained 0.2% in June on the heels of a 0.6% rise in May...
U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Improve
The Conference Board's Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators increased 0.5% (5.8% y/y) during June...
Philadelphia Fed Factory Conditions Recover; Prices Surge
The Philadelphia Fed reported that its General Factory Sector Business Conditions Index rebounded to 25.7 during July...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Hit Lowest Since 1969
Initial claims for unemployment insurance dropped to 207,000 during the week ended July 14...
Japan's Trade Deficit Swings Back to Surplus (Small Surplus)
Japan's early June trade results show a goods trade position having swung back to surplus in June from deficit in May...
by Tom Moeller October 24, 2005
The weekly leading index of the US economy published by the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) increased 0.7% last week and rose to a record high for the series. The gain followed no change during the prior week and w/w declines during much of September.
Despite the somewhat erratic performance recently, the six month growth rate of the leading index at 2.1% is near the middle of its recent range and is up from the low of -0.6% in early June.
During the last ten years there has been a 53% correlation between the change in the weekly leading index and US real GDP growth during the following quarter. The correlation has risen to 76% during the last five years.
Visit the Economic Cycle Research Institute for analysis of US and international business cycles.
Tax Reform Options in the Real World from the Brookings Institution is available here.
| Economic Cycle Research Institute | 10/14/05 | 12/31/04 | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weekly Leading Index | 135.9 | 132.5 | 2.9% | 132.6 | 124.9 | 119.8 |
| 6 Month Growth Rate | 2.1% | 1.6% | 4.2% | 6.7% | 1.1% |
