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Economy in Brief
U.S. Job Market Improves Broadly During July
The 528,000 gain in nonfarm payrolls last month (4.0% y/y)...
U.S. Consumer Credit Growth Surges in June
Consumer credit outstanding jumped $40.1 billion (7.7% y/y) in June...
Japan's LEI Waffles and Slows
Japan's leading economic index in June slipped to 100.6...
U.S. Foreign Trade Deficit Narrows in June
The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services (BOP basis) fell to $79.61 billion in June...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Remain on an Uptrend
Initial claims for unemployment insurance filed in the week ended July 30 rose 6,000 to 260,000...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Excess Demand for Goods Caused Supply Constraints
Q2 GDP Does Not Confirm Economic Recession, But It Does Confirm A Corporate Profit Recession
State Coincident Indexes in June 2022
State Labor Markets in June 2022
No Recession Call Can Be Made Before BEA Explains The Record Gap Between Income & Output
by Tom Moeller October 24, 2005
The weekly leading index of the US economy published by the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) increased 0.7% last week and rose to a record high for the series. The gain followed no change during the prior week and w/w declines during much of September.
Despite the somewhat erratic performance recently, the six month growth rate of the leading index at 2.1% is near the middle of its recent range and is up from the low of -0.6% in early June.
During the last ten years there has been a 53% correlation between the change in the weekly leading index and US real GDP growth during the following quarter. The correlation has risen to 76% during the last five years.
Visit the Economic Cycle Research Institute for analysis of US and international business cycles.
Tax Reform Options in the Real World from the Brookings Institution is available here.
| Economic Cycle Research Institute | 10/14/05 | 12/31/04 | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weekly Leading Index | 135.9 | 132.5 | 2.9% | 132.6 | 124.9 | 119.8 |
| 6 Month Growth Rate | 2.1% | 1.6% | 4.2% | 6.7% | 1.1% |
