Recent Updates
- UK: National Insurance Number Allocations (Q3), Capital Issuance, Motor Vehicle Production, Average Precipitation (Oct), BoE Balance Sheets (Nov)
- Russia: Nonresident Holdings of Government Debt (Oct)
- Belarus: New Hires and Terminations (Oct)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. New Home Sales Almost Unchanged Since August
New single-family home sales around the country changed very little in October and also in September...
U.S. Q3 Growth GDP Unrevised at 33.1%; Corporate Profits Rebound
The second estimate of Q3 U.S. real GDP indicated that economic activity rose an unrevised 33.1% q/q...
U.S. Durable Goods Orders Rise Further in October
Manufacturers’ orders for durable goods increased 1.3% m/m (-0.3% y/y) in October...
U.S. Goods Trade Deficit Deepens During October
The advance estimate of the U.S. trade deficit in goods deepened to $80.29 billion during October...
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Rise for a Second Week
Initial claims for regular state unemployment insurance rose again this past week ending November 21 to 778,000...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller October 24, 2005
The weekly leading index of the US economy published by the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) increased 0.7% last week and rose to a record high for the series. The gain followed no change during the prior week and w/w declines during much of September.
Despite the somewhat erratic performance recently, the six month growth rate of the leading index at 2.1% is near the middle of its recent range and is up from the low of -0.6% in early June.
During the last ten years there has been a 53% correlation between the change in the weekly leading index and US real GDP growth during the following quarter. The correlation has risen to 76% during the last five years.
Visit the Economic Cycle Research Institute for analysis of US and international business cycles.
Tax Reform Options in the Real World from the Brookings Institution is available here.
| Economic Cycle Research Institute | 10/14/05 | 12/31/04 | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weekly Leading Index | 135.9 | 132.5 | 2.9% | 132.6 | 124.9 | 119.8 |
| 6 Month Growth Rate | 2.1% | 1.6% | 4.2% | 6.7% | 1.1% |
