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Economy in Brief

ECRI Leading Index Reached a New High
by Tom Moeller October 24, 2005

The weekly leading index of the US economy published by the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) increased 0.7% last week and rose to a record high for the series. The gain followed no change during the prior week and w/w declines during much of September.

Despite the somewhat erratic performance recently, the six month growth rate of the leading index at 2.1% is near the middle of its recent range and is up from the low of -0.6% in early June.

During the last ten years there has been a 53% correlation between the change in the weekly leading index and US real GDP growth during the following quarter. The correlation has risen to 76% during the last five years.

Visit the Economic Cycle Research Institute for analysis of US and international business cycles.

Tax Reform Options in the Real World from the Brookings Institution is available here.

Economic Cycle Research Institute  10/14/05 12/31/04 Y/Y 2004 2003 2002
Weekly Leading Index 135.9 132.5 2.9% 132.6 124.9 119.8
   6 Month Growth Rate 2.1% 1.6%   4.2% 6.7% 1.1%
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