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Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller October 18, 2005
Chain store sales rose for the fourth consecutive week. Last week's 0.4% increase, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS survey, lifted sales 1.3% above the mid-September low.
During the last ten years there has been a 56% correlation between the y/y change in chain store sales and the change in non-auto retail sales less gasoline, as published by the US Census Department. Chain store sales correspond directly with roughly 14% of non-auto retail sales less gasoline.
The leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC squeaked out a 0.1% (-2.5% y/y) increase.
The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.
| ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100) | 10/15/05 | 10/08/05 | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Weekly Chain Store Sales | 450.6 | 448.9 | 3.3% | 4.6% | 2.9% |
