Recent Updates
- US: Consumer Sentiment (Feb-final), Chicago PMI (Feb),Personal Income, Adv Trade & Inventories (Jan)
- US: Consumer Sentiment Detail (Feb-final)
- Canada: Industrial Product Prices (Jan)
- UK: Motor Vehicle Production (Jan)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Chicago Business Barometer Declines Sharply in February
The ISM-Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer fell 4.3 points in February to 59.5...
Goods Trade Deficit Widened Slightly in January
The advance estimate of the U.S. trade deficit in goods widened slightly to $83.74 billion in January..
Japan's Industrial Sector Mounts a Comeback
Japan's IP surged in January gaining 4.3% compared to December...
Aircraft Orders Boost U.S. Durable Goods Orders in January
Manufacturers' orders for durable goods increased a much larger-than-expected 3.4% m/m (4.5% y/y) in January...
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index Increases Again in February
The Kansas City Fed reported that its manufacturing sector business activity index rose to 24 in February...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller October 17, 2005
The U.S. federal government ran a budget deficit of $318.6B during FY05, down nearly one quarter from the record deficit of $412.1B during the prior fiscal year.As a percentage of GDP, the deficit fell to 2.6% from 3.6% in FY04.
Net receipt growth of 14.6% during FY05 was capped by a 62.5% m/m spike in September. That gain was led by a 31.6% m/m rise in individual income taxes (44% of total receipts) which followed an 18.3% August increase. For the fiscal year, the 14.6% rise in individual income taxes was the strongest since 1981.
Corporate income taxes (10% of total receipts) also reflected the improved economy and spiked higher in September. The 47.0% y/y gain during FY05 was the strongest since 1952 and followed a 43.7% jump the prior year.
The improved job market raised employment taxes (36% of total receipts) 8.8% y/y during all of FY 2005, the strongest increase since 1988.
U.S. net outlays grew 7.9% during FY05. Federal outlays on defense (19% of total outlays) continued to surge but the 8.3% gain during FY05 actually was down from 12.8% growth during FY04 and from 15.9% during FY 03. Medicare spending (12% of total outlays) surged during the last two months and lifted FY05 growth to 10.9%, the strongest since 1992. Spending on social security (21% of total outlays) fell in September and the decline limited the increase during FY 05 to a still high 5.6%. Spending on health programs (10% of the total) rose 4.3% during FY05 while spending on education & training (4% of the total) surged 11.3%. interest expense (8% of the total) grew 14.9% with higher interest rates versus a modest rise last year and declines during the prior six fiscal years.
Do Budget Deficits Cause Inflation? from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia can be found here.
US Government Finance | Sept | Aug | FY 2005 | FY2004 | FY2003 | FY2002 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Budget Balance | $35.8B | $-51.6B | $-318.6B | $-412.1B | $-377.6B | $-157.8B |
Net Revenues | $252.6B | $155.4B | 14.6% | 5.5% | -3.8% | -6.9% |
Net Outlays | $216.8B | $207.0B | 7.9% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 7.9% |