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Economy in Brief
Delay in Release
of Data for Construction, MSIO, Intl Trade, Wholesale Trade, Monthly Treasury, Retail Sales, Business Sales & Inventories, and Housing Starts Due to Lapse in Federal Government Funding.
U.K. Retail Sales Begin to Lose Momentum
U.K. retail sales fell by a sharp 1% in December...
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Rebounds; Pricing Pressure Eases
The Philadelphia Fed reported that its General Factory Sector Business Conditions Index increased to 17.0 during January...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Slip
Initial claims for jobless insurance eased to 213,000 (-2.6% y/y) during the week ended January 12...
Passenger Car Registrations Hold to Low Ground in Europe
Passenger car registrations in Europe fell on a year-over-year comparison for the fourth consecutive months in December...
by Tom Moeller October 14, 2005
The consumer price index (CPI-U) was a bit stronger than Consensus expectations for a 0.9% rise last month. The 1.2% gain was the strongest for any month since 1980 and lifted the y/y increase to its strongest (4.7%) since 1991.
Higher energy prices continued to fuel the m/m increase and rose 12.0%, an all-time record. The 17.9% m/m rise in gasoline prices to an average $2.90 per gallon also was a record advance but prices have fallen slightly in October. Fuel oil prices also were strong, up 11.8% (46.0% y/y), while natural gas & electricity prices jumped 4.6% (13.5% y/y).
Prices less food & energy rose the same 0.1% as during the prior four months and again the gain was less than Consensus expectations for a 0.2% increase. Core goods prices rose 0.1% for the second consecutive month. Apparel prices fell 0.1% (-0.7% y/y) and most household furnishings prices fell as well. New vehicle prices rose 0.4% (0.7% y/y) and tobacco prices rose 0.7% (5.6% y/y).
Core services prices rose 0.1% for the second consecutive month as shelter prices fell 0.1% (+2.0% y/y) offset by a 0.3% (4.4% y/y) gain in medical care services prices. Public transportation prices rose 0.1% (7.5% y/y) for the second month and school tuition costs jumped 0.7% (6.3% y/y).
The chained CPI which adjusts for shifts in the mix of consumer purchases rose 0.8% and less food & energy chain prices rose 0.2%.
Update on the U.S. Economy and Fiscal Outlook, a speech made yesterday by Federal Reserve Board Governor Mark W. Olson, is available here.
| Consumer Price Index | Sept | Aug | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 1.2% | 0.5% | 4.7% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 1.6% |
| Total less Food & Energy | 0.1% | 0.1% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.3% |
| Goods less Food & Energy | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.6% | -0.9% | -2.0% | -1.1% |
| Services less Energy | 0.1% | 0.1% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.8% |
| Energy | 12.0% | 5.0% | 35.1% | 10.9% | 12.2% | -5.9% |
| Food | 0.3% | 0.0% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 1.8% |
| Chained CPI: Total (NSA) | 0.8% | 0.4% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 1.3% |
| Total less Food & Energy | 0.2% | 0.2% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.9% |
