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Economy in Brief
U.S. Mortgage Applications Rose Slightly in the Latest Week
Mortgage applications increased 0.2% (-62.9% y/y) from one week earlier...
U.S. Productivity Declines in Q2, Pushing Unit Labor Costs Higher
Nonfarm business sector productivity fell 4.6% (AR) during Q2'22...
U.S. Small Business Optimism Edged Up in July
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index edged up to 89.9 in July...
U.S. Gasoline & Crude Oil Prices Continue Weakening
Retail gasoline prices declined to $4.04 per gallon (+27.3% y/y) last week...
OECD LEIs Point to a Ramp Down in Growth - and Nothing More
The OECD metrics this month show a broad tendency for growth to slow down...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller October 14, 2005
The consumer price index (CPI-U) was a bit stronger than Consensus expectations for a 0.9% rise last month. The 1.2% gain was the strongest for any month since 1980 and lifted the y/y increase to its strongest (4.7%) since 1991.
Higher energy prices continued to fuel the m/m increase and rose 12.0%, an all-time record. The 17.9% m/m rise in gasoline prices to an average $2.90 per gallon also was a record advance but prices have fallen slightly in October. Fuel oil prices also were strong, up 11.8% (46.0% y/y), while natural gas & electricity prices jumped 4.6% (13.5% y/y).
Prices less food & energy rose the same 0.1% as during the prior four months and again the gain was less than Consensus expectations for a 0.2% increase. Core goods prices rose 0.1% for the second consecutive month. Apparel prices fell 0.1% (-0.7% y/y) and most household furnishings prices fell as well. New vehicle prices rose 0.4% (0.7% y/y) and tobacco prices rose 0.7% (5.6% y/y).
Core services prices rose 0.1% for the second consecutive month as shelter prices fell 0.1% (+2.0% y/y) offset by a 0.3% (4.4% y/y) gain in medical care services prices. Public transportation prices rose 0.1% (7.5% y/y) for the second month and school tuition costs jumped 0.7% (6.3% y/y).
The chained CPI which adjusts for shifts in the mix of consumer purchases rose 0.8% and less food & energy chain prices rose 0.2%.
Update on the U.S. Economy and Fiscal Outlook, a speech made yesterday by Federal Reserve Board Governor Mark W. Olson, is available here.
| Consumer Price Index | Sept | Aug | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 1.2% | 0.5% | 4.7% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 1.6% |
| Total less Food & Energy | 0.1% | 0.1% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.3% |
| Goods less Food & Energy | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.6% | -0.9% | -2.0% | -1.1% |
| Services less Energy | 0.1% | 0.1% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.8% |
| Energy | 12.0% | 5.0% | 35.1% | 10.9% | 12.2% | -5.9% |
| Food | 0.3% | 0.0% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 1.8% |
| Chained CPI: Total (NSA) | 0.8% | 0.4% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 1.3% |
| Total less Food & Energy | 0.2% | 0.2% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.9% |
