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Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller October 13, 2005
The 2.3% rise in import prices last month more than doubled Consensus expectations for a 1.0% increase. Surprising was a 1.2% gain in nonpetroleum prices that was a record for any one month.
Petroleum prices also were strong and the 7.3% increase came after a downwardly revised 6.0% August increase.
The strength in import prices other than petroleum reflected a 5.0% (11.3% y/y) pop in non-oil industrial supplies. Broad based strength was evident in a 2.6% (12.6% y/y) gain in chemical prices and a 2.9% (12.0% y/y) increase in nonferrous metals. Prices for nonauto consumer goods rose 0.3% (1.4% y/y) following two months of decline and capital goods prices were unchanged for the second month (-0.3% y/y). Computer, peripheral & semiconductor prices fell 0.4% (-5.9% y/y). Excluding computers capital goods prices rose 0.3% (2.5% y/y).
During the last ten years there has been a 66% (negative) correlation between the nominal trade-weighted exchange value of the US dollar vs. major currencies and the y/y change in non oil import prices. The correlation is a lower 47% against a broader basket of currencies and a lower 57% against the real value of the dollar.
Export prices jumped 0.9% as nonagricultural prices surged 1.1% (3.8% y/y).
Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Import Prices in the Euro Area from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York can be found here.
Import/Export Prices (NSA) | Sept | Aug | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Import - All Commodities | 2.3% | 1.2% | 9.9% | 5.6% | 2.9% | -2.5% |
Petroleum | 7.3% | 6.0% | 48.9% | 30.5% | 21.0% | 3.0% |
Non-petroleum | 1.2% | 0.1% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 1.1% | -2.4% |
Export - All Commodities | 0.9% | -0.1% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 1.6% | -1.0% |