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Economy in Brief

Chain Store Sales Up Slightly Last Week
by Tom Moeller October 11, 2005

Chain store sales added 0.2% last week to the prior week's 0.6% jump, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS survey. Though sales have risen during the past three successive weeks, the level in early October was 0.2% below the September average which fell 1.7% from the August average, .

During the last ten years there has been a 56% correlation between the y/y change in chain store sales and the change in non-auto retail sales less gasoline, as published by the US Census Department. Chain store sales correspond directly with roughly 14% of non-auto retail sales less gasoline.

The leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC dropped 0.5% (-2.5% y/y) for the second time in three weeks and the decline was the fifth since the middle of August.

The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.

The Economics of Giving from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis is available here.

ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100) 10/08/05 10/01/05 Y/Y 2004 2003
Total Weekly Chain Store Sales 448.9 448.0 2.7% 4.6% 2.9%
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