Recent Updates
- India: GDP Press (Q3)
- Brazil: Manufacturing Confidence Indexes (Nov), Household Employment (Sep)
- Ireland: ESRI Consumer Sentiment (Nov)
- Mexico: Advanced Trade (Oct)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. New Home Sales Almost Unchanged Since August
New single-family home sales around the country changed very little in October and also in September...
U.S. Q3 Growth GDP Unrevised at 33.1%; Corporate Profits Rebound
The second estimate of Q3 U.S. real GDP indicated that economic activity rose an unrevised 33.1% q/q...
U.S. Durable Goods Orders Rise Further in October
Manufacturers’ orders for durable goods increased 1.3% m/m (-0.3% y/y) in October...
U.S. Goods Trade Deficit Deepens During October
The advance estimate of the U.S. trade deficit in goods deepened to $80.29 billion during October...
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Rise for a Second Week
Initial claims for regular state unemployment insurance rose again this past week ending November 21 to 778,000...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller October 11, 2005
The index of small business optimism from the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) fell another 0.9% in September following a 0.2% decline the month earlier.
Hurricanes Katrina and Rita drastically cut expectations for sales and for the economy, however, plans for adding to employment and capital expenditures held steady.
During the last ten years there has been a 70% correlation between the level of the NFIB index and the two quarter change in real GDP.
The percentage of firms with one or more job openings slipped slightly to 23%. During the last ten years there has been a 67% correlation between hiring plans and the three month growth in nonfarm payrolls.
The percentage of firms planning to raise average selling prices held steady m/m at 27% up from 26% during all of last year. During the last ten years there has been a 60% correlation between the change in the producer price index and the level of the NFIB price index.
About 24 million businesses exist in the United States. Small business creates 80% of all new jobs in America.
The latest press release from the NFIB is available here.
| Nat'l Federation of Independent Business | Sept | Aug | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Small Business Optimism Index (1986=100) | 100.0 | 100.9 | -4.3% | 104.6 | 101.3 | 101.2 |
