Recent Updates
- Israel: Average Housing Prices (Q2)
- Japan: NCI Economic Activity Index (Aug)
- US: NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (Aug)
- Canada: Wholesale trade, MSIO (June)
- Pakistan: Foreign Currency Deposits and Utilization (JUL)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Housing Affordability Declines Further in June
The NAR Fixed Rate Mortgage Housing Affordability Index fell 3.6% in June...
EMU Output Makes Solid Gain in June
The European Monetary Union posted a 0.7% increase for industrial output in June...
U.S. Producer Prices Fall During July; Core Increase Weakens
The Producer Price Index for Final Demand fell 0.5% during July...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Continue on an Uptrend
Initial claims for unemployment insurance filed in the week ended August 6 rose 14,000 to 262,000...
RICS Survey Points to More U.K. Housing Sector Weakness
The survey of housing market conditions in the U.K. continues to show strength in prices versus weakness...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller October 10, 2005
The Leading Index of the Major 7 OECD economies rose for the third consecutive month in August following four months of decline. The 0.1% gain followed increases of 0.5% during the prior two months and the leaders' six month growth rate rose to 0.7%, its best this year.
During the last ten years there has been a 68% correlation between the change in the leading index and the q/q change in the GDP Volume Index for the Big Seven countries in the OECD.
The leading index for Japan rose for the third consecutive month following five months of decline. The 0.4% increase improved the six month growth rate to 0.8%, the best since January and was paced by higher share prices, more loans and rising construction.
Leaders in the European Union (15 countries) also turned in the third consecutive monthly rise with a 0.5% gain that lifted six month growth to 1.5%, the best since last November.
German leaders added 0.7% to an upwardly revised 1.2% July increase. Six month growth improved to 3.2% as a result of strong new orders, low inventories and an improving business climate. The French leaders rose for the second month and the 0.5% increase pulled the six month growth rate up to -0.8%. Earlier months' figures were revised down. The Italian leading index finally showed positive movement. A 0.6% increase was double the upwardly revised July increase, pulled the six month growth rate positive for the first time in over a year and reflected improved new orders and production, though consumer confidence still is dreary.
The U.S. leaders slipped 0.2%. The decline followed three successive months of increase and caused six month growth to back off to 1.1% as the yield curve tightened, consumer sentiment sagged and construction spending fell. The Canadian leaders dropped a sharp 1.6% following earlier months' declines that were revised from positive gains. The six month growth rate fell hard to a negative 5.0%, the worst since early 2001. A soft money supply, a tighter yield curve, lower housing starts and weak production explain the recent weakness.
The UK leaders rose modestly for the third consecutive month and six month growth turned positive (0.03%) for the first month since November due to higher share prices.
The latest OECD Leading Indicator report is available here.
Living Longer Must Mean Working Longer from the OECD can be found here.
OECD | Aug | July | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Composite Leading Index | 102.31 | 102.23 | 0.2% | 102.03 | 97.59 | 96.30 |
6 Month Growth Rate | 0.7% | 0.5% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 2.2% |