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Economy in Brief

Weekly Chain Store Sales Recover A Bit More
by Tom Moeller October 4, 2005

The International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS survey reported that chain store sales rose another 0.6% last week following a 0.1% up tick the week prior. For the full month, however, sales look to have fallen 1.7% from the August average which fell 0.1% from July.

During the last ten years there has been a 56% correlation between the y/y change in chain store sales and the change in non-auto retail sales less gasoline, as published by the US Census Department. Chain store sales correspond directly with roughly 14% of non-auto retail sales less gasoline.

The leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC jumped 1.0% higher (-1.9% y/y) following declines during four of the prior five weeks.

The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.

ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100) 09/31/05 09/24/05 Y/Y 2004 2003
Total Weekly Chain Store Sales 448.0 445.5 3.0% 4.6% 2.9%
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