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Economy in Brief

Chicago Purchasing Agents' Index Improved Unexpectedly
by Tom Moeller September 30, 2005

The Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer improved unexpectedly in September to 60.5, recovering most of the 14.3 point decline in August. Consensus expectations had been for a slight increase to 52.

During the last ten years there has been a 65% correlation between the level of Chicago PMI and the three month change in factory sector industrial production.

The new orders index rose 16.9 points after a 23.1 point drop in August but the production index gained back less than half of the 14.3 point August shortfall. Employment fell for the fifth month in the last six. During the last ten years there has been a 75% correlation between the level of the employment index and the three month change in factory sector employment.

The index of prices surged 13.4 points to the highest level since Januarys. During the last ten years there has been an 86% correlation between the Chicago price index and the three month change in the "core" intermediate goods PPI.

Chicago Purchasing Managers Index, SA Sept Aug  Sept '04 2004 2003 2002
Business Barometer 60.5 49.2 64.3 62.9 54.6 52.8
  New Orders 63.4 46.5 71.8 67.0 58.0 56.2
Prices Paid 76.3 62.9 86.9 80.1 55.8 56.9
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