Recent Updates

  • US: Manpower Employment Outlook Survey (Q1)
  • Thailand: Consumer Confidence Index (Nov)
  • Philippines: International Trade (Oct)
  • Australia: Rural Production (2017), NAB Business Survey (Nov), Residential Property Price Indexes (Q3)
  • Korea: First 10 Days of Trade (Dec), Public Finance (Oct)
  • Japan: Money Stock, Machine Tools Orders Press (Nov), Business Outlook Survey Press (Q4), Oil Statistics (Oct)
  • Beijing Producer Price Index (Nov)
  • more updates...

Economy in Brief

Weekly Chain Store Sales Inch Higher
by Tom Moeller September 27, 2005

The International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS survey indicated that chain store sales inched 0.1% higher last week, depressed again by the Hurricane effect which lowered sales 2.1% the prior week. So far this month sales are 1.6% below the August average which fell 0.1% from July.

During the last ten years there has been a 56% correlation between the y/y change in chain store sales and the change in non-auto retail sales less gasoline, as published by the US Census Department. Chain store sales correspond directly with roughly 14% of non-auto retail sales less gasoline.

The weak rise in sales last week accompanied a slight 0.6% up tick in gasoline prices to $2.80 per gallon (46.2% y/y).

The leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC fell another 0.5% (-2.9% y/y) after the 2.0% decline the prior week and it was the fourth decline in the last five weeks.

The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.

ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100) 09/24/05 09/17/05 Y/Y 2004 2003
Total Weekly Chain Store Sales 445.5 445.0 2.8% 4.6% 2.9%
large image