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Economy in Brief
U.S. Consumer Credit Outstanding Declines in January
Consumers reduced credit balances further in January...
U.S. Trade Deficit Widens to $68.2 Billion in January
The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services widened to $68.2 billion in January...
German Order Growth Gets Back in Gear Despite the Headwinds
German order growth is back in gear with total orders rising by 1.4% m/m in January...
U.S. Factory Orders & Shipments Rise Again in January
Manufacturing activity is strengthening. Factory orders rose 2.6% (2.8% y/y) in January...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Rise Just 9,000
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose modestly by 9,000 to 745,000 in the week ended February 27...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller September 27, 2005
The Conference Board's September index of Consumer Confidence fell 17.9% m/m to 86.6 following a 1.8% gain during August that was little revised.
Consensus expectations had been for a shallower decline to 94.7. Last week, the University of Michigan reported that its measure of consumer sentiment fell 13.7% m/m (-18.4% y/y).
During the last twenty years there has been a 52% correlation between the level of consumer confidence and the y/y change in real consumer spending. The correlation rose to 66% during the last ten years.
The index of consumers' expectations fell 23.2% m/m (-26.6% y/y) while the assessment of the present situation dropped 12.0% (+14.3% y/y). Jobs were viewed as hard to get by 25.4% of survey participants, a rise to the highest level this year though the 25.2% of participants who thought that business conditions were good was the lowest since February.
The Conference Boards survey isconducted by a mailed questionnaire to 5,000 households and about 3,500 typically respond.
Conference Board | Sept | August | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Consumer Confidence | 86.6 | 105.5 | -10.4% | 96.1 | 79.8 | 96.6 |