Recent Updates
- ** India's RBI Effective XR have rebased from 2004-05=100 to 2015-16=100. We are currently working on these changes. **
- Indonesia: CPI, WPI (Feb)
- Japan: Market Capitalization (Feb)
- Korea: Passenger Car Trade (Q4), MOTIE Trade (Feb)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Chicago Business Barometer Declines Sharply in February
The ISM-Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer fell 4.3 points in February to 59.5...
Goods Trade Deficit Widened Slightly in January
The advance estimate of the U.S. trade deficit in goods widened slightly to $83.74 billion in January..
Japan's Industrial Sector Mounts a Comeback
Japan's IP surged in January gaining 4.3% compared to December...
Aircraft Orders Boost U.S. Durable Goods Orders in January
Manufacturers' orders for durable goods increased a much larger-than-expected 3.4% m/m (4.5% y/y) in January...
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index Increases Again in February
The Kansas City Fed reported that its manufacturing sector business activity index rose to 24 in February...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Louise Curley September 26, 2005
Large Corporations (corporations with capital of 1 billion or more) in Japan have become more optimistic according to the Business Outlook Survey conducted by the Ministry of Finance (MOF) and the Cabinet Office's Economic and Social Research Institute.The percentage of all large corporations reporting better rather than worse current conditions in the third quarter rose to 9.7% from 0.9% in the second quarter. This was below the estimate of 11.3% for the third quarter made in the second quarter. However, the current estimate for the next quarter--the fourth of 2005--is 10.7%, which suggests that the optimists continue to outweigh the pessimists. As for large manufacturing corporation, while the mood has become more optimistic, the excess of better over worse conditions for the current quarter is only 6.4%. In looking ahead, however, large manufacturers have been estimating steady improvement
The latest survey shows that optimists outweighed pessimists in medium sized corporations (corporations with capital of 100 million to 1 billion yen) in the current quarter. and are expected to continue to do so. Small sized corporations (corporations with capital between 10 and 100 million yen) continue to be pessimistic, but their degree of pessimism had begun to diminish.The excess of pessimists fell from 21.4% to 15.1% in the current survey.
Some analysts have come to look upon the MOF's Business Outlook Survey as an indicator of the business conditions indicator for large enterprises in the more widely known Tankan Survey that tends to be released about a week or so after the MOF survey. (The next Tankan results are due on October 3, 2005.) The attached chart showing the next quarter estimate of the Business Outlook Survey and the forecast of business conditions for large enterprises in the Tankan Survey seems to bear out this hypothesis, but it should be kept in mind that as it is based on only a small number of data points it significance is yet to be tested.
Ministry of Finance Business Outlook Survey | Current | Quarter | Estimate | Next | Quarter | Estimate | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
of Change | Q3 05 | Q2 05 | Q1 05 | Q4 05 | Q3 05 | Q2 05 | |
All Industry | |||||||
Large Corporations | 9.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 10.7 | 11.3 | 3.6 | |
Medium Corporations | 5.5 | -5.0 | -9.7 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 3.4 | |
Small Corporations | -15.1 | -21.4 | -24.3 | -3.8 | -12.6 | -11.1 | |
Manufacturing | |||||||
Large Corporations | 6.4 | -2.4 | -7.6 | 11.1 | 10.9 | 1.9 | |
Medium Corporations | -5.1 | -6.9 | -18.7 | 8.1 | 8.2 | 7.8 | |
Small Corporations | -11.9 | -19.9 | -24.6 | -1.7 | -10.5 | -9.1 |