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Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller September 20, 2005
The full effect of Hurricane Katrina pushed chain store sales down 2.1% last week, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS survey, after a slight 0.2% decline the prior week. So far this month sales are 1.2% below the August average which fell 0.1% from July.
The ICSC suggested that in addition to the Hurricane, higher gasoline prices and a drop in consumer confidence were responsible for the decline.
During the last ten years there has been a 56% correlation between the y/y change in chain store sales and the change in non-auto retail sales less gasoline, as published by the US Census Department. Chain store sales correspond directly with roughly 14% of non-auto retail sales less gasoline.
The leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC cratered 2.0% in the latest week (-2.0% y/y) after a slight gain during the previous week.
The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.
ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100) | 09/17/05 | 09/10/05 | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Weekly Chain Store Sales | 445.0 | 454.6 | 2.4% | 4.6% | 2.9% |