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Economy in Brief
U.S. Consumer Credit Outstanding Declines in January
Consumers reduced credit balances further in January...
U.S. Trade Deficit Widens to $68.2 Billion in January
The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services widened to $68.2 billion in January...
German Order Growth Gets Back in Gear Despite the Headwinds
German order growth is back in gear with total orders rising by 1.4% m/m in January...
U.S. Factory Orders & Shipments Rise Again in January
Manufacturing activity is strengthening. Factory orders rose 2.6% (2.8% y/y) in January...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Rise Just 9,000
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose modestly by 9,000 to 745,000 in the week ended February 27...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller September 20, 2005
Housing starts slipped 1.3% last month to 2.009M units versus a downwardly revised 2.035M units in July.The drop outpaced Consensus expectations for a decline to 2.025M starts.
Single-family starts inched 0.1% higher in this last report taken before Hurricane Katrina hit the US Gulf Coast. The rise was due to higher single family starts in the Northeast (1.5% y/y) and in the West (6.1% y/y). Single family starts in the South fell m/m (+1.4% y/y) and in the Midwest (-6.5% y/y).
Yesterday's report from the Nat'l Association of Home Builders (NAHB) indicated slippage in their composite September index (-3.0% y/y) due to weaker current sales, weaker sales prospects and sharply lower buyer traffic. During the last twenty years there has been a 76% correlation between the y/y change in the NAHB index and the change in single family housing starts.
Multi family starts fell a sharp 8.5% m/m while building permits fell as well.
Assessing High House Prices: Bubbles, Fundamentals, and Misconceptions from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York can be found here.
Housing Starts (000s, AR) | Aug | July | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total | 2,009 | 2,035 | -0.8% | 1,950 | 1,854 | 1,7 10 |
Single-family | 1,709 | 1,707 | 1.2% | 1,604 | 1,505 | 1,363 |
Multi-family | 300 | 328 | -10.7% | 345 | 349 | 347 |
Building Permits | 2,124 | 2,171 | 3.2% | 2,058 | 1,8 88 | 1,749 |