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Economy in Brief

Chinese Exports of Goods on the Way to Surpass Those of the U. S. and Germany in the Next Five Years
by Louise Curley September 19, 2005

August exports of goods from the Republic of China recorded a 32% increase over the year ago figure according to the CEIC data that are available in Haver's CEIC China Premium Database. At this pace, it is not surprising that OECD (Organization for Economic and Development) in its first Survey of China suggests that China could overtake the United States and Germany as the world's largest exporter, in the next five years. A summary of the OECD Economic Survey of China can be found at here.

The growth in China's exports of goods compared with that of the U.S. is shown in the first chart, and with that of Germany in the second chart. The data for Germany and the
U. S. are only through July. The differences between the growth rates of China versus the U. S. and China versus Germany have been consistently large over the past few years. Exports of goods and the annual growth rates for the three countries are shown below for the past five years. In 2004, exports of goods from the U. S., Germany and China were, respectively, $816 billion, $912 billion and $593 billion.

(Million of U. S. Dollars) Aug 05  Jul  05 Aug 04 M/M % Y/Y % 2004  2003 2002 
Chinese exports of goods 67820 65584 51400 3.41 31.95 593232 438250 325711
                 
Total Exports of Goods  2004  2003 2002  2001 2000      
United States 816395 723611 693123 730906 771991      
Germany 911889 742063 612794 570275 548785      
China 593232 438250 325711 266698 249195      
Annual Percent Change                
United States 12.82 4.40 -5.17 -5.32 11.27      
Germany 22.86 21.10 7.45 3.92 2.48      
China 35.36 34.55 22.13 7.02 27.84      
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