Recent Updates
- US: Consumer Sentiment (Feb-final), Chicago PMI (Feb),Personal Income, Adv Trade & Inventories (Jan)
- US: Consumer Sentiment Detail (Feb-final)
- Canada: Industrial Product Prices (Jan)
- UK: Motor Vehicle Production (Jan)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Chicago Business Barometer Declines Sharply in February
The ISM-Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer fell 4.3 points in February to 59.5...
Goods Trade Deficit Widened Slightly in January
The advance estimate of the U.S. trade deficit in goods widened slightly to $83.74 billion in January..
Japan's Industrial Sector Mounts a Comeback
Japan's IP surged in January gaining 4.3% compared to December...
Aircraft Orders Boost U.S. Durable Goods Orders in January
Manufacturers' orders for durable goods increased a much larger-than-expected 3.4% m/m (4.5% y/y) in January...
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index Increases Again in February
The Kansas City Fed reported that its manufacturing sector business activity index rose to 24 in February...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller September 16, 2005
Total business inventories fell in July for the second month. The decline lowered the three month change in inventories to -1.5% (AR) versus a 12.1% peak rate of accumulation through last August. The ratio of inventories-to-sales dropped to a new record low of 1.26 as business sales rose 1.1% (8.2% y/y), goosed by a surge in auto sales.
Retail inventories plummeted 1.8% due to a 5.4% drop in auto inventories. Excluding autos, however, retail inventories fell only slightly (+5.9% y/y). Furniture inventories fell 0.2% (+7.9% y/y) and inventories of apparel were unchanged (5.9% y/y).
Factory sector inventories rose for the first month since March.
Wholesale inventories fell 0.1% pulling three month growth down to 2.8%, the lowest since 2003. During the last ten years there has been a 64% correlation between the y/y change in wholesale inventories and the change in imports of merchandise.
| Business Inventories | July | June | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | -0.5% | -0.0% | 4.2% | 7.7% | 1.4% | 1.6% |
| Retail | -1.8% | -0.5% | -0.4% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 5.9% |
| Retail excl. Autos | -0.0% | 0.4% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 2.0% | 2.3% |
| Wholesale | -0.1% | 0.4% | 8.2% | 10.8% | 2.0% | 1.2% |
| Manufacturing | 0.5% | 0.1% | 6.0% | 7.5% | -1.3% | -1.8% |
