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Economy in Brief
U.S. Mortgage Applications Rose Slightly in the Latest Week
Mortgage applications increased 0.2% (-62.9% y/y) from one week earlier...
U.S. Productivity Declines in Q2, Pushing Unit Labor Costs Higher
Nonfarm business sector productivity fell 4.6% (AR) during Q2'22...
U.S. Small Business Optimism Edged Up in July
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index edged up to 89.9 in July...
U.S. Gasoline & Crude Oil Prices Continue Weakening
Retail gasoline prices declined to $4.04 per gallon (+27.3% y/y) last week...
OECD LEIs Point to a Ramp Down in Growth - and Nothing More
The OECD metrics this month show a broad tendency for growth to slow down...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller September 16, 2005
Total business inventories fell in July for the second month. The decline lowered the three month change in inventories to -1.5% (AR) versus a 12.1% peak rate of accumulation through last August. The ratio of inventories-to-sales dropped to a new record low of 1.26 as business sales rose 1.1% (8.2% y/y), goosed by a surge in auto sales.
Retail inventories plummeted 1.8% due to a 5.4% drop in auto inventories. Excluding autos, however, retail inventories fell only slightly (+5.9% y/y). Furniture inventories fell 0.2% (+7.9% y/y) and inventories of apparel were unchanged (5.9% y/y).
Factory sector inventories rose for the first month since March.
Wholesale inventories fell 0.1% pulling three month growth down to 2.8%, the lowest since 2003. During the last ten years there has been a 64% correlation between the y/y change in wholesale inventories and the change in imports of merchandise.
Business Inventories | July | June | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total | -0.5% | -0.0% | 4.2% | 7.7% | 1.4% | 1.6% |
Retail | -1.8% | -0.5% | -0.4% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 5.9% |
Retail excl. Autos | -0.0% | 0.4% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 2.0% | 2.3% |
Wholesale | -0.1% | 0.4% | 8.2% | 10.8% | 2.0% | 1.2% |
Manufacturing | 0.5% | 0.1% | 6.0% | 7.5% | -1.3% | -1.8% |