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Economy in Brief
U.S. New Home Sales Almost Unchanged Since August
New single-family home sales around the country changed very little in October and also in September...
U.S. Q3 Growth GDP Unrevised at 33.1%; Corporate Profits Rebound
The second estimate of Q3 U.S. real GDP indicated that economic activity rose an unrevised 33.1% q/q...
U.S. Durable Goods Orders Rise Further in October
Manufacturers’ orders for durable goods increased 1.3% m/m (-0.3% y/y) in October...
U.S. Goods Trade Deficit Deepens During October
The advance estimate of the U.S. trade deficit in goods deepened to $80.29 billion during October...
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Rise for a Second Week
Initial claims for regular state unemployment insurance rose again this past week ending November 21 to 778,000...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller September 16, 2005
Total business inventories fell in July for the second month. The decline lowered the three month change in inventories to -1.5% (AR) versus a 12.1% peak rate of accumulation through last August. The ratio of inventories-to-sales dropped to a new record low of 1.26 as business sales rose 1.1% (8.2% y/y), goosed by a surge in auto sales.
Retail inventories plummeted 1.8% due to a 5.4% drop in auto inventories. Excluding autos, however, retail inventories fell only slightly (+5.9% y/y). Furniture inventories fell 0.2% (+7.9% y/y) and inventories of apparel were unchanged (5.9% y/y).
Factory sector inventories rose for the first month since March.
Wholesale inventories fell 0.1% pulling three month growth down to 2.8%, the lowest since 2003. During the last ten years there has been a 64% correlation between the y/y change in wholesale inventories and the change in imports of merchandise.
| Business Inventories | July | June | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | -0.5% | -0.0% | 4.2% | 7.7% | 1.4% | 1.6% |
| Retail | -1.8% | -0.5% | -0.4% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 5.9% |
| Retail excl. Autos | -0.0% | 0.4% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 2.0% | 2.3% |
| Wholesale | -0.1% | 0.4% | 8.2% | 10.8% | 2.0% | 1.2% |
| Manufacturing | 0.5% | 0.1% | 6.0% | 7.5% | -1.3% | -1.8% |
