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Economy in Brief
Delay in Release
of Data for Construction, MSIO, Intl Trade, Wholesale Trade, Monthly Treasury, Retail Sales, Business Sales & Inventories, and Housing Starts Due to Lapse in Federal Government Funding.
U.K. Retail Sales Begin to Lose Momentum
U.K. retail sales fell by a sharp 1% in December...
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Rebounds; Pricing Pressure Eases
The Philadelphia Fed reported that its General Factory Sector Business Conditions Index increased to 17.0 during January...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Slip
Initial claims for jobless insurance eased to 213,000 (-2.6% y/y) during the week ended January 12...
Passenger Car Registrations Hold to Low Ground in Europe
Passenger car registrations in Europe fell on a year-over-year comparison for the fourth consecutive months in December...
by Tom Moeller September 16, 2005
Total business inventories fell in July for the second month. The decline lowered the three month change in inventories to -1.5% (AR) versus a 12.1% peak rate of accumulation through last August. The ratio of inventories-to-sales dropped to a new record low of 1.26 as business sales rose 1.1% (8.2% y/y), goosed by a surge in auto sales.
Retail inventories plummeted 1.8% due to a 5.4% drop in auto inventories. Excluding autos, however, retail inventories fell only slightly (+5.9% y/y). Furniture inventories fell 0.2% (+7.9% y/y) and inventories of apparel were unchanged (5.9% y/y).
Factory sector inventories rose for the first month since March.
Wholesale inventories fell 0.1% pulling three month growth down to 2.8%, the lowest since 2003. During the last ten years there has been a 64% correlation between the y/y change in wholesale inventories and the change in imports of merchandise.
| Business Inventories | July | June | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | -0.5% | -0.0% | 4.2% | 7.7% | 1.4% | 1.6% |
| Retail | -1.8% | -0.5% | -0.4% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 5.9% |
| Retail excl. Autos | -0.0% | 0.4% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 2.0% | 2.3% |
| Wholesale | -0.1% | 0.4% | 8.2% | 10.8% | 2.0% | 1.2% |
| Manufacturing | 0.5% | 0.1% | 6.0% | 7.5% | -1.3% | -1.8% |
