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Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller September 14, 2005
US retail sales fell 2.1% in August due to a 12.0% drop in motor vehicle dealers' sales. Consensus expectations had been for a 1.3% decline. Less autos, however, retail sales doubled expectations and rose 1.0%.
Some of this m/m strength was due to a 4.4% surge in gasoline service station sales, although it was just half the 8.6% m/m increase in the retail price of gasoline to an average $2.49 per gallon.
Less gasoline, nonauto retail sales rebounded 0.5% (7.0 y/y) following no change in July.
Sales at furniture & electronics stores rose 0.6% (5.9% y/y) following an upwardly revised 0.2% July increase. Sales of nonstore retailers (internet & catalogue) jumped 1.8% (11.0% y/y) and sales of building materials rose 0.5% (8.4% y/y).
On the disappointing side, general merchandise store sales rose a modest 0.3% (6.7% y/y) after downwardly revised gains in both July and June while apparel store sales were unchanged after a deepened 0.9% drop in July.
Oil Prices and Consumer Spending from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond is available here.
Aug | July | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Retail Sales & Food Services | -2.1% | 1.9% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 4.3% | 2.5% |
Excluding Autos | 1.0% | 0.5% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 4.7% | 3.3% |