Recent Updates
- China: 70-City Property Prices (Sep), Capacity Utilization, GDP (Q3)
- US: Regional Retail Sales (Sep)
- Spain: Motor Vehicle Registrations (Sep)
- Canada Regional: CPI by Province (Sep), Retail Trade by Province (Aug)
- Canada: CPI (Sep), Retail Trade (Aug)
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- Latvia: PPI (Sep)
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Economy in Brief
Canadian Retail Sales Weaken As Inflation Slows
Canada's retail sales show relatively widespread deceleration...
U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Strengthen
The Conference Board's Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators increased 0.5% (7.0% y/y) during September...
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Growth Continues; Pricing Pressure Eases
The Philadelphia Federal Reserve reported that its General Factory Sector Business Conditions Index dipped to 22.2 during October...
U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Ease
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell to 210,000 (-8.7% y/y) during the week ended October 13...
U.K. Retail Sales: Doing Well-As-Can-Be-Expected Despite September Drop
U.K. retail sales and growth have all held up remarkably well- so far...
by Tom Moeller September 13, 2005
The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) reported that their index of optimism amongst small businesses fell 0.2% in August and reversed a small up tick the month prior.
During the last ten years there has been a 64% correlation between the level of the NFIB index and the two quarter change in real GDP.
A greater percentage of firms expected higher real sales in six months but a lower percentage expected the economy to improve.
The percentage of firms with one or more job openings jumped back to the five year high of 24%. During the last ten years there has been a 67% correlation between hiring plans and the three month growth in nonfarm payrolls.
The percentage of firms planning to raise capital spending fell as did the percentage of firms raising average selling prices rose.
About 24 million businesses exist in the United States. Small business creates 80% of all new jobs in America.
| Nat'l Federation of Independent Business | Aug | July | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Small Business Optimism Index (1986=100) | 100.9 | 101.1 | -1.9% | 104.6 | 101.3 | 101.2 |
