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- Vietnam: CPI, International Trade, Retail Sales, Industrial Production (Nov)
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Economy in Brief
Italy's ISAE Sector Confidence Rebounds Then Retreats
The Italian business and consumer confidence readings are excellent examples of what much of Europe is going through right now...
U.S. New Home Sales Almost Unchanged Since August
New single-family home sales around the country changed very little in October and also in September...
U.S. Q3 Growth GDP Unrevised at 33.1%; Corporate Profits Rebound
The second estimate of Q3 U.S. real GDP indicated that economic activity rose an unrevised 33.1% q/q...
U.S. Durable Goods Orders Rise Further in October
Manufacturers’ orders for durable goods increased 1.3% m/m (-0.3% y/y) in October...
U.S. Goods Trade Deficit Deepens During October
The advance estimate of the U.S. trade deficit in goods deepened to $80.29 billion during October...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller September 13, 2005
The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) reported that their index of optimism amongst small businesses fell 0.2% in August and reversed a small up tick the month prior.
During the last ten years there has been a 64% correlation between the level of the NFIB index and the two quarter change in real GDP.
A greater percentage of firms expected higher real sales in six months but a lower percentage expected the economy to improve.
The percentage of firms with one or more job openings jumped back to the five year high of 24%. During the last ten years there has been a 67% correlation between hiring plans and the three month growth in nonfarm payrolls.
The percentage of firms planning to raise capital spending fell as did the percentage of firms raising average selling prices rose.
About 24 million businesses exist in the United States. Small business creates 80% of all new jobs in America.
| Nat'l Federation of Independent Business | Aug | July | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Small Business Optimism Index (1986=100) | 100.9 | 101.1 | -1.9% | 104.6 | 101.3 | 101.2 |
