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Economy in Brief

Weekly Chain Store Sales Down A Bit
by Tom Moeller September 13, 2005

The International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS survey indicated that chain store sales fell 0.2% last week after no change the prior week. So far this month sales are 0.5% below the August average which fell 0.1% from July.

The ICSC indicated that at least 13 shopping malls were closed indefinitely be Hurricane Katrina.

During the last ten years there has been a 56% correlation between the y/y change in chain store sales and the change in non-auto retail sales less gasoline, as published by the US Census Department. Chain store sales correspond directly with roughly 14% of non-auto retail sales less gasoline.

The leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC rose 0.4% in the latest week (-0.3% y/y) following 0.2% declines during the prior two weeks.

The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.

ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100) 09/10/05 09/03/05 Y/Y 2004 2003
Total Weekly Chain Store Sales 454.6 455.4 3.5% 4.6% 2.9%
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