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by Tom Moeller September 13, 2005
The International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS survey indicated that chain store sales fell 0.2% last week after no change the prior week. So far this month sales are 0.5% below the August average which fell 0.1% from July.
The ICSC indicated that at least 13 shopping malls were closed indefinitely be Hurricane Katrina.
During the last ten years there has been a 56% correlation between the y/y change in chain store sales and the change in non-auto retail sales less gasoline, as published by the US Census Department. Chain store sales correspond directly with roughly 14% of non-auto retail sales less gasoline.
The leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC rose 0.4% in the latest week (-0.3% y/y) following 0.2% declines during the prior two weeks.
The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.
| ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100) | 09/10/05 | 09/03/05 | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Weekly Chain Store Sales | 454.6 | 455.4 | 3.5% | 4.6% | 2.9% |
