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Economy in Brief
U.S. Mortgage Applications Decline as Interest Rates Continue to Increase
The MBA Mortgage Loan Applications Index declined 11.4%...
U.S. Consumer Confidence Increases in February
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index increased 2.7% (-31.1% y/y) to 91.3 during February...
U.S. FHFA House Price Index Continues to Rise Markedly
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index increased 1.1% m/m in December...
U.S. Energy Prices Surge as Texas Freeze Limits Supply
The price of regular gasoline strengthened to $2.63 per gallon (6.8% y/y) in the week ended February 22...
EMU HICP Makes First Year-on-Year Rise since July
The EMU headline rose by 0.8% in January, its first year-on-year gain in six months...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller August 31, 2005
The August Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer reversed all of the prior month's sharp gain with a 14.3 point m/m drop to 49.2 that dropped the index to its lowest in over two years. Consensus expectations had been for just a slight decline 61.0.
During the last ten years there has been a 65% correlation between the level of Chicago PMI and the three month change in factory sector industrial production.
New orders cratered 23.1 points and the production index dropped 14.4 points. Employment fell a lesser 4.4 points to 51.7. During the last ten years there has been a 75% correlation between the level of the employment index and the three month change in factory sector employment.
The index of prices repeated the 1.6 rise in July and rose to its highest level since April. During the last ten years there has been an 86% correlation between the Chicago price index and the three month change in the "core" intermediate goods PPI.
Chicago Purchasing Managers Index, SA | Aug | July | Aug '04 | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Business Barometer | 49.2 | 63.5 | 56.8 | 62.9 | 54.6 | 52.8 |
New Orders | 46.5 | 69.6 | 58.2 | 67.0 | 58.0 | 56.2 |
Prices Paid | 62.9 | 61.3 | 86.6 | 80.1 | 55.8 | 56.9 |