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Economy in Brief
Delay in Release
of Data for Construction, MSIO, Intl Trade, Wholesale Trade, Monthly Treasury, Retail Sales, Business Sales & Inventories, and Housing Starts Due to Lapse in Federal Government Funding.
U.S. Home Builder Index Improves
The NAHB -Wells Fargo Composite Housing Market Index rose to 58 during January...
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The MBA total Mortgage Applications Index increased 13.5% (1.4% y/y) during the week ended January 11...
EMU Inflation Pokes Above 2% Then Dives
Inflation in the EMU, in its largest economies, and in the U.K., remains subdued...
U.S. Producer Prices Decline Led by Lower Energy Costs
The headline Final Demand Producer Price Index using new methodology fell 0.2% during December...
by Tom Moeller August 31, 2005
The August Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer reversed all of the prior month's sharp gain with a 14.3 point m/m drop to 49.2 that dropped the index to its lowest in over two years. Consensus expectations had been for just a slight decline 61.0.
During the last ten years there has been a 65% correlation between the level of Chicago PMI and the three month change in factory sector industrial production.
New orders cratered 23.1 points and the production index dropped 14.4 points. Employment fell a lesser 4.4 points to 51.7. During the last ten years there has been a 75% correlation between the level of the employment index and the three month change in factory sector employment.
The index of prices repeated the 1.6 rise in July and rose to its highest level since April. During the last ten years there has been an 86% correlation between the Chicago price index and the three month change in the "core" intermediate goods PPI.
| Chicago Purchasing Managers Index, SA | Aug | July | Aug '04 | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business Barometer | 49.2 | 63.5 | 56.8 | 62.9 | 54.6 | 52.8 |
| New Orders | 46.5 | 69.6 | 58.2 | 67.0 | 58.0 | 56.2 |
| Prices Paid | 62.9 | 61.3 | 86.6 | 80.1 | 55.8 | 56.9 |
