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Economy in Brief
U.S. Housing Affordability Declines Further in June
The NAR Fixed Rate Mortgage Housing Affordability Index fell 3.6% in June...
EMU Output Makes Solid Gain in June
The European Monetary Union posted a 0.7% increase for industrial output in June...
U.S. Producer Prices Fall During July; Core Increase Weakens
The Producer Price Index for Final Demand fell 0.5% during July...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Continue on an Uptrend
Initial claims for unemployment insurance filed in the week ended August 6 rose 14,000 to 262,000...
RICS Survey Points to More U.K. Housing Sector Weakness
The survey of housing market conditions in the U.K. continues to show strength in prices versus weakness...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller August 31, 2005
The August Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer reversed all of the prior month's sharp gain with a 14.3 point m/m drop to 49.2 that dropped the index to its lowest in over two years. Consensus expectations had been for just a slight decline 61.0.
During the last ten years there has been a 65% correlation between the level of Chicago PMI and the three month change in factory sector industrial production.
New orders cratered 23.1 points and the production index dropped 14.4 points. Employment fell a lesser 4.4 points to 51.7. During the last ten years there has been a 75% correlation between the level of the employment index and the three month change in factory sector employment.
The index of prices repeated the 1.6 rise in July and rose to its highest level since April. During the last ten years there has been an 86% correlation between the Chicago price index and the three month change in the "core" intermediate goods PPI.
Chicago Purchasing Managers Index, SA | Aug | July | Aug '04 | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Business Barometer | 49.2 | 63.5 | 56.8 | 62.9 | 54.6 | 52.8 |
New Orders | 46.5 | 69.6 | 58.2 | 67.0 | 58.0 | 56.2 |
Prices Paid | 62.9 | 61.3 | 86.6 | 80.1 | 55.8 | 56.9 |