Recent Updates
- US: Consumer Sentiment (Aug-prelim), Import/Export Prices (Jul)
- US: Consumer Sentiment Detail (Aug-prelim)
- US: Vehicle Miles Driven by State (Jun)
- Bulgaria: Agricultural PPI (Q2) Central Bank Survey (Jul)
- Blue Chip: Blue Chip Economic Indicators (Aug)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Housing Affordability Declines Further in June
The NAR Fixed Rate Mortgage Housing Affordability Index fell 3.6% in June...
EMU Output Makes Solid Gain in June
The European Monetary Union posted a 0.7% increase for industrial output in June...
U.S. Producer Prices Fall During July; Core Increase Weakens
The Producer Price Index for Final Demand fell 0.5% during July...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Continue on an Uptrend
Initial claims for unemployment insurance filed in the week ended August 6 rose 14,000 to 262,000...
RICS Survey Points to More U.K. Housing Sector Weakness
The survey of housing market conditions in the U.K. continues to show strength in prices versus weakness...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller August 30, 2005
The Conference Board's August index of Consumer Confidence posted a 1.9% m/m increase to 105.6 following a 2.4% July decline that was shallower than initially reported.
Consensus expectations had been for a decline to 101.4 in sympathy with the 7.7% m/m decline in consumer sentiment reported last week by the University of Michigan.
During the last twenty years there has been a 52% correlation between the level of consumer confidence and the y/y change in real consumer spending. The correlation rose to 66% during the last ten years.
Consumers' assessment of the present situation rose 3.6% m/m to the highest level since 2001. Jobs were viewed as hard to get by 23.2% of survey participants, down slightly m/m, but the 29.8% of participants who thought that business conditions were good was a further improvement on earlier strong readings.
Consumer expectations gained back 0.5% (-3.7% y/y) of a sharp 3.3% decline in July.
The Conference Boards survey isconducted by a mailed questionnaire to 5,000 households and about 3,500 typically respond.
Conference Board | August | July | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Consumer Confidence | 105.6 | 103.6 | 7.0% | 96.1 | 79.8 | 96.6 |