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Economy in Brief
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Rise Just 9,000
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose modestly by 9,000 to 745,000 in the week ended February 27...
U.S. Productivity's Decline Lessened in Q4'20; Reverses Q3 Increase
Revisions to nonfarm business sector productivity indicated a 4.2% decline during Q4'20...
EMU Unemployment Rate Steadies in January
The overall EMU unemployment rate was steady in January, off peak, but still elevated...
U.S. ADP Nonfarm Private Payroll Increase Disappoints in February
Job market strength moderated last month....
U.S. ISM Services Index Weakens in February
The ISM Composite Index of Services Activity declined to 55.3 during February...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Carol Stone August 25, 2005
The German IFO Business Climate survey deteriorated anew this month after a hopeful improvement in July. The Business Climate Index eased to 94.6 (2000=100) from July's 95.0; forecasts had called for it to edge upward instead, to 95.2. The August result corresponds to a diffusion index of -11.7, down from July's -10.9.
By sector, wholesale trade, retail trade and manufacturing all declined, while construction managed to firm more than 4 points to -35.6, its best reading since early 2001. Commentators in press reports were most disappointed by the retail trade decline, which was the second in row. June had appeared to be establishing a good positive trend, but this was clearly unsustainable, possibly in the face of rising energy costs. Manufacturing, similarly, looked in July to be recovering from its weakness in Q2, but this did not extend into August. Even so, the -0.7 August figure remains much better than any in Q2.
Overall, companies saw marginal decreases in current conditions, from an index reading of 94.9 in July to 93.8 in August. The expectations component actually had a marginal improvement, to 95.4 from 95.1 in July and 92.9 in June. Thus, while headlines bemoan the negative move in the total, it is small, and companies hardly seem deeply distressed about their future prospects.
Germany | Aug 2005 | July 2005 | June 2005 | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Business Climate Index, 2000=100 | 94.6 | 95.0 | 93.3 | 95.7 | 91.7 | 89.4 |
Diffusion Index | -11.7 | -10.9 | -14.2 | -9.6 | -17.5 | -22.0 |
Manufacturing | -0.7 | -0.1 | -5.3 | 4.5 | -7.9 | -10.3 |
Construction | -35.6 | -39.9 | -42.0 | -42.7 | -42.9 | -44.5 |
Wholesale Trade | -17.9 | -13.6 | -18.1 | -17.2 | -25.0 | -29.8 |
Retail Trade | -27.3 | -24.8 | -21.0 | -27.6 | -25.5 | -40.2 |