Recent Updates
- Japan: ** Japan IP forecasts have rebased from 2010=100 to 2015=100. We are currently working on processing the new data.**
- ** New Zealand Jobs Online has changed its reported frequency from monthly to quarterly and rebased from August 2010=100 to Q4 2010=100. **
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- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Kansas City Federal Reserve Factory Index Hits Record High
The Kansas City Fed reported that its index of regional manufacturing sector business activity surged to a record 26...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Decline Sharply
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell sharply to 209,000 (-17.1% y/y)...
German Confidence Flattens and Falters
German confidence for May is mooted at a 97.8% queue percentile standing...
U.S. Mortgage Loan Applications Are Little Changed; Rates Remain High
The MBA total Mortgage Applications Volume Index eased 0.2% last week (-1.9% y/y)...
Japan Shows Very Moderate Growth As Trade War Clouds Gather
Japan’s sector indexes showed a solid gain in February...
by Carol Stone August 24, 2005
New orders for durable goods fell 4.9% last month, with decreases across several industries. Consensus expectations had been for a 1.4% decline.
The increase in June's total orders was revised higher, from 1.4% reported initially to 1.9% in today's data. The gain in May was also raised, from 6.4% to 7.3%. These revisions encompass the usual monthly refinements plus the annual benchmarking, which was published last Friday. In that revision, total durable goods orders for 2004 were reduced by 0.6%.
July's orders for fabricated metals products, machinery and electronics were all down after sizable increases in June. Transportation orders fell 8.6%; they also declined in June, but they were up 23.5% in May. This last sector also saw sizable upward revisions: the May level was raised $4.1 billion or 6.4% in the annual revisions. By contrast, computer sector orders were chopped $5.3 billion or 15.0% for May; for June, today's data resulted in an originally reported 8.7% rise being cut to just 0.8%, with an 8.3% fall coming in July. Thus, the modest 0.6% revision for 2004 as a whole reflects widely varying revisions to individual industries. Transportation looks stronger, but computers considerably lower than before.
Orders for aircraft & parts continued to decline in July, a second sharp drop after their spike in May. Nondefense capital goods fell 7.3% last month, including the drop in aircraft and a 3.7% fall in other capital goods orders.
Shipments of durable goods eased 0.1% in July, continuing a recent trend of minimal monthly changes. Inventories rose 0.6% after a 0.4% fall in June. Order backlogs rose 1.0%, a third consecutive sizable increase, despite the volatility in new orders. The ratio of backlogs to shipments rose to 2.81, the highest since early 2002. Excluding transportation, this ratio was 1.95, the highest since June 2004.
NAICS Classification | July | June | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Durable Goods Orders | -4.9% | 1.9% | 5.0% | 9.5% | 4.1% | -3.4% |
Excluding Transportation | -3.2% | 3.6% | 7.6% | 11.7% | 3.1% | -6.2% |
Nondefense Capital Goods | -7.3% | -2.2% | 6.7% | 11.0% | 4.2% | -9.8% |
Excluding Aircraft | -3.7% | 4.8% | 8.4% | 9.5% | 4.8% | -10.5% |